Report Details - Report Date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Industry: Oil and Fats [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Macro factors show positive signals from Sino-US meetings and economic and trade consultations. Palm oil faces pressure due to strong production increase expectations in major producing areas, slowing export data, and expected inventory increases, but there are long - term expectations of production cuts and B50. Soybean imports are expected to decrease after November, and soybean oil may turn to inventory reduction. For rapeseed oil, attention should be paid to the arrival and crushing of Australian seeds and the progress of Sino - Canadian relations, with domestic spot basis remaining stable and strong and continuing the inventory reduction trend. Short - term is seen as volatile adjustment, and the long - term strategy is to buy on dips [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - **Market Review** - East China's third - grade rapeseed oil: From October to November, it is OI2601 + 390; from December to January, it is OI2601 + 320. East China's first - grade rapeseed oil: From October to November, it is OI2601 + 480; from December to January, it is OI2601 + 400. East China's first - grade soybean oil basis price: In November, it is Y2501 + 200; from December to January, it is Y2501 + 220; from February to May, it is Y2605 + 300; from April to July, it is Y2505 + 220. The quotation of palm oil by Dongguan traders remains stable: 24 - degree palm oil in Dongguan factories is 01 - 80 [7] - **Operation Suggestions** - Short - term: View as volatile adjustment. Long - term: Adopt the strategy of buying on dips [8] 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - **Brazilian Soybean Production Forecast** - Rabobank expects Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season to reach a record 177 million tons, a 3% increase from the previous year, slightly higher than the USDA's current forecast of 175 million tons [9] - **Brazilian Soybean Export Data** - From October 1 to 24, Brazil's soybean export volume was 5.415 million tons, compared with 4.71 million tons in October last year. The average daily export volume in October so far is 300,843 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40.5% [9] - **Brazilian Soybean Sowing Progress** - As of October 27, 2025, the soybean sowing progress in Paraná state, Brazil, for the 2025/26 season was 68%, higher than 52% a week ago. The excellent and good rate is 98%, and the general - rated proportion is 2%. 28% of the soybeans are germinating, 1% are in the flowering stage, and 71% are in the vegetative growth stage [9][10] - **Global Soybean Production Forecast** - The International Grains Council (IGC) predicts that the global soybean production in the 2025/26 season will be 428 million tons, lower than the September expectation of 428.7 million tons and last year's 428.6 million tons. The US soybean production is adjusted down to 116 million tons, and Brazil's is expected to be 177 million tons [10] 3.3数据概览 (Data Overview) - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot prices of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, East China's fourth - grade soybean oil, and South China's 24 - degree palm oil, as well as the basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, and some price spreads and exchange rate data. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [13][14][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global vegetable oil demand in the 2025/26 period is expected to reach a record high, with the import volume of eight major oils increasing by 3.1 million tons to 94.5 million tons. The main driving force for the import increase is the expected 6.1 million - ton rise in global vegetable oil consumption, more than twice that of the previous year. However, vegetable oil prices will still face pressure in 2025/26 [10]. - The implementation of Indonesia's B50 policy may significantly reduce its exportable palm - oil supply, and the global vegetable oil demand in the coming year will rely heavily on sunflower oil [11]. - The weather in the US and Brazil will have an impact on crop growth and harvesting. In the US, future rainfall may help relieve drought but may also delay crop harvesting; in Brazil, the current dry weather is beneficial for farmers' field operations [6][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Quotes - Futures quotes: The closing prices and daily/overnight percentage changes of commodities such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, and US soybeans are presented. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 01 (BMD) is 4466.00, with a previous - day increase of 0.36% and an overnight decrease of 0.09% [1]. - Currency quotes: The latest prices and percentage changes of the US dollar index and various currencies against the US dollar are provided, including the US dollar index at 98.92 with a 0.05% increase [1]. 02 Spot Quotes - Spot prices and basis information for DCE palm oil 2601, DCE soybean oil 2601, and DCE soybean meal 2601 in different regions are given. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 9330, with a basis of 90 and a basis change of 0 [3]. - CNF quotes and CNF premium information for imported soybeans from different regions are provided, such as the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans at 285 cents per bushel and the CNF quote at 483 dollars per ton [3]. 03 Important Fundamental Information - Production Area Weather - US soybean - producing states: The future weather (October 28 - November 1) in most of the US soybean - producing states will have temperatures above normal and precipitation above the average. In addition, frost may occur in some areas in the Midwest in the coming days, and precipitation may delay crop harvesting [4][6]. - Brazil: The current dry weather in Brazil is beneficial for farmers' field operations. A new front will bring showers to the southern and central regions this weekend and early next week, which is generally favorable for soybean planting [7][8]. - International Supply and Demand - Global vegetable oil: The expected increase in global vegetable oil demand in 2025/26 is mainly due to the strong demand from the biodiesel industries in the US, Indonesia, and Brazil. However, traditional exporters may reduce their exports, and Indonesia's biodiesel policy is an unstable factor [10]. - Palm oil in Indonesia: If Indonesia implements the B50 policy, the amount of palm oil used for blending will increase, and the exportable supply will decrease significantly [11]. - Soybean: The IGC predicts that the global soybean output in 2025/26 will decrease by 1 million tons to 428 million tons, the trade volume will increase by 2 million tons to 187 million tons, and the consumption will decrease by 1 million tons to 430 million tons [12]. - Domestic Supply and Demand - Commodity trading volume: On October 23, the trading volume of soybean oil was 11,000 tons, and that of palm oil was 3,600 tons, with a total trading volume of 14,600 tons, a 2.67% decrease from the previous trading day [16]. - Soybean meal trading and oil - mill operation: On October 23, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 148,600 tons, an increase of 20,500 tons from the previous day. The operating rate of all - sample oil mills was 68.13%, a 0.38% increase from the previous day [16]. - Agricultural product prices: On October 23, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" both increased. The prices of various agricultural products such as pork, beef, and eggs also changed to different extents [16]. 04 Macroeconomic News - International News - Fed rate - cut expectations: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October is 98.3%, and the probability of cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cuts in December is 93.4% [18]. - US economic data: US September existing - home sales totaled 4.06 million units, in line with expectations; the Kansas City Fed manufacturing composite index in October was 6, higher than expected [18]. - EU sanctions: The EU has imposed new sanctions on Russia due to the Russia - Ukraine conflict and has also sanctioned some Chinese and Indian companies. China has expressed strong dissatisfaction and opposition [18]. - Domestic News - Exchange rate: On October 23, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.0918, a 36 - point decrease (appreciation of the Chinese yuan) [20]. - Central bank operations: On October 23, the People's Bank of China conducted 212.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 236 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 23.5 billion yuan [20]. - Policy news: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed to build a strong domestic market and accelerate the construction of a new development pattern. China and the US will hold economic and trade consultations in Malaysia from October 24 - 27 [21]. 05 Capital Flows - On October 23, 2025, the net inflow of funds into the futures market was 27.536 billion yuan, including 3.42 billion yuan into commodity futures, 24.868 billion yuan into stock - index futures, and a net outflow of 729 million yuan from bond futures [24]. 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

Core Viewpoint - The domestic oilseed market shows mixed performance, with soybean meal futures experiencing a strong upward trend despite high supply and inventory levels [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Soybean meal futures opened at 2887.00 CNY/ton and reached a high of 2942.00 CNY/ton, with a closing increase of 2.30% [1]. - The market is characterized by a strong performance, with soybean meal showing a fluctuating upward trend [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - High supply and inventory levels are suppressing soybean meal prices, but low prices for soybean oil and meal are leading to increased support from oil mills [1]. - Domestic soybean procurement by oil mills is slow, providing a firm cost support for soybean meal, limiting downward price movement [1]. Group 3: External Influences - The Trump administration's plan to provide billions in aid to farmers is noted, alongside Brazil's soybean exports increasing to 7.34 million tons in October, up over 1 million tons year-on-year [1]. - The market is cautious due to the lack of significant external information, focusing instead on the high inventory levels of soybean meal [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is expected to experience wide fluctuations in the short term, with a reference pressure level for soybean meal at 3000-3100 CNY/ton [1]. - Future attention will be on the U.S. resuming report publications, adjustments in production estimates, and outcomes of U.S.-China trade negotiations [2].

Core Insights - Soybeans are a crucial oilseed crop, with yellow soybeans being the most widely planted variety. China, originally a major soybean producer, has become the largest importer due to the influx of genetically modified (GM) soybeans from the US after joining the WTO in 2001 [1][8] - Despite efforts to boost domestic production, China's soybean supply remains insufficient, with projected production of 20.65 million tons against consumption of 114.56 million tons for the 2024/25 period [1][8] - China is heavily reliant on imports, with 2024 imports expected to reach 105 million tons, a 6.5% increase year-on-year, while the import value is projected to decline by 10.9% to $52.726 billion [1][9] Soybean Industry Overview - Soybeans are classified into GM and non-GM varieties, with China being a major producer of non-GM soybeans, while the US, Brazil, and Argentina dominate GM soybean production [3][4] - The global soybean market has seen stable supply growth, with the USDA forecasting a 6.0% increase in global production to 421 million tons for the 2024/25 period [6] Supply and Demand Dynamics - China's soybean production is projected to increase slightly to 21.09 million tons in 2025/26, but consumption will remain high at 114.15 million tons, indicating a persistent supply-demand gap [8] - The global soybean supply is primarily concentrated in the Americas, with the US, Brazil, and Argentina accounting for over 80% of production [6] Trade Patterns - China's soybean exports are declining, with 2024 exports expected to be 60,200 tons valued at $5.8 million, primarily consisting of non-GM soybeans [8] - The import of GM soybeans is heavily concentrated from Brazil, which accounted for 72.3% of imports in the first eight months of 2025, while imports from the US decreased significantly due to higher costs [9][10] Future Outlook - Domestic soybean production is expected to grow, driven by government support and improved agricultural practices, with a projected planting area of 16.733 million acres by 2029 [12] - The import structure is anticipated to shift towards increasing imports from South American countries and nations involved in the Belt and Road Initiative, enhancing supply chain resilience [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively analyzes the changes in the external market during the 2025 National Day holiday, including the fluctuations of various financial and commodity indices, as well as the supply - demand situation of the international and domestic agricultural and energy industries, and international and domestic macro - economic news. 3. Summary by Related Contents External Market Fluctuations during National Day - The US dollar index rose from 97.82 to 98.84, with a 1.04% increase; the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.44%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.69% [1]. - Among agricultural products, BMD Malaysian palm oil rose 4.48%, CBOT US soybeans rose 2.90%, and ICE US cotton fell 1.19% [1]. - In the energy sector, NYMEX US fuel oil fell 1.36%, NYMEX US crude oil fell 0.21%, and ICE Brent fell 0.11% [1]. - Among non - ferrous metals, COMEX gold rose 4.45%, COMEX silver rose 3.42%, and LME copper rose 3.93% [1]. International Supply - Demand Situation - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia's September palm oil inventory is expected to decline by 2.5% compared to August, production is expected to decline by 3.3%, and exports are expected to increase by 7.7%. Indonesia's 2025/26 palm oil production is expected to decline by 1%, and Malaysia's is expected to decline by 1%. Global palm oil imports are expected to increase by 4.6% [2][3]. - **Soybeans**: S&P Global lowered the US soybean yield forecast. As of September 1, 2025, the US old - crop soybean inventory was 3.16 billion bushels. Brazilian soybean planting progress is faster than in previous years, and the 2025/26 production is expected to increase. Argentina's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 4850 tons, and corn production is expected to be 5800 tons [4][5][7]. - **Other Crops**: Canada's 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to be 2002.8 tons, and exports are expected to be 700 tons. Ukraine has approved new export documents for tax - exempt rapeseed and soybean exports [13][14]. Domestic Supply - Demand Situation - On September 30, the total trading volume of domestic edible oils decreased by 71% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the oil mill operating rate dropped by 6.41%. The national soybean oil port inventory decreased by 0.7 tons [16]. International Macro - news - The US ADP employment in September decreased by 32,000, the Challenger job - cuts in September were 54,064, and the ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 50. The US government shutdown continued, and the release of some economic data was postponed [18][19]. - OPEC + will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. The eurozone's October Sentix investor confidence index was - 5.4 [19]. Domestic Macro - news - On September 30, the US dollar/renminbi exchange rate was adjusted downwards (the renminbi appreciated). The central bank conducted 242.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 33.9 billion yuan. On October 9, the central bank will conduct 1.1 trillion yuan of 3 - month (91 - day) outright reverse repurchase operations [22]. - In September, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage point [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the latest data on the soybean industry from multiple countries, including the US, Brazil, Argentina, and China, covering aspects such as crop growth, export, production, and import [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Information - US Soybeans - As of the week ending June 8, 2025, the US soybean good-to-excellent rate was 68%, in line with market expectations, up from 67% the previous week and lower than 72% in the same period last year [1]. - The US soybean planting rate was 90%, lower than the market - expected 91%, up from 84% the previous week, higher than 86% last year and the five - year average of 88% [1]. - The US soybean emergence rate was 75%, up from 63% the previous week, higher than 68% last year and the five - year average of 72% [1]. - As of the week ending June 5, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 547,040 tons, exceeding the market forecast of 155,000 - 400,000 tons, up from the revised 301,459 tons the previous week [1]. - The export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 0 tons this week. The cumulative US soybean export inspection volume this crop year was 45,188,245 tons, compared with 40,543,390 tons in the same period last year [1]. Brazil Soybeans - As of June 6, about 64% of Brazil's 2024/25 - year soybeans had been sold, lower than 71.8% in the same period last year and the five - year average. The 2024/25 - year soybean production is expected to be 172.45 million tons [1]. - Brazil's 2025/26 - year soybean sales rate was 10.8%, lower than 14.6% in the same period last year and the five - year average of 20.6%. The 2025/26 - year soybean production is expected to be 182.57 million tons [1]. Argentina Soybeans - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimated that Argentina's 2024/2025 - year soybean production would be 48.5 million tons [1]. - As of the end of May, the soybean crop harvest rate in Argentina was 80.7%, with the early - sown soybeans 86% harvested. The soybean crop yield is expected to be 3,090 kg/ha (46.0 bushels/acre), with a yield range of 1,200 - 3,740 kg/ha (17.8 - 55.7 bushels/acre) [1]. China's Imports - China's soybean imports from January to May were 37.108 million tons, a 0.7% decrease from the same period last year. In May, the soybean import volume was 13.918 million tons [1]. - China's edible vegetable oil imports from January to May were 2.491 million tons, a 12.9% decrease from the same period last year. In May, the import volume was 462,000 tons [1]. - China's grain imports from January to May were 48.368 million tons, a 29.7% decrease from the same period last year. In May, the import volume was 16.552 million tons [1]. Spot Prices - The report provides spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from June 3 to June 9, 2025 [1].

Core Insights - Argentina's soybean harvest progress has surged by 20%, indicating a significant increase in production efficiency and potential yield [1] Group 1: Harvest Progress - The soybean harvest in Argentina has advanced rapidly, with a 20% increase in progress reported [1] Group 2: Weather Impact - The Pampas region is expected to experience rainfall soon, which could have implications for soybean yield and overall agricultural output [1]