The average rate on a 30-year U.S. mortgage edged higher this week, though it remains relatively near its low point so far this yearFILE - A sign is posted for a new home for sale in Ambler, Pa., Thursday, Oct. 16, 2025. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke, File)The average rate on a 30-year U.S. mortgage edged higher this week, though it remains relatively near its low point so far this year.The uptick brings the average long-term mortgage rate to 6.22% from 6.19% last week, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday. A y ...

The Fed cuts again… but this might be the last one for a while… a different Fed curveball from Monday… why has the 10-year Treasury yield been rising?…VIEW IN BROWSERToday, in a 9–3 vote, the Federal Reserve delivered a 25-basis-point rate cut at its December FOMC meeting – the first time in six years that three members have dissented.The move lowers the fed funds target range to 3.50%–3.75%, another incremental step in the Fed’s ongoing effort to engineer a soft landing.During his press conference, Federal ...

Core Insights - Mortgage rates have slightly decreased, with the average 30-year mortgage rate at 6.27%, down from 6.3% the previous week, and the average 15-year mortgage rate at 5.52%, down from 5.53% [1][4] Group 1: Mortgage Rates and Economic Factors - The 10-year Treasury yield, which closely tracks mortgage rates, has been volatile due to ongoing trade tensions between the US and China, particularly following President Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1 [2] - The ongoing government shutdown has delayed several key economic data releases, contributing to the narrow range of mortgage rate movements in recent weeks, as noted by a senior economist at Zillow Home Loans [3][5] Group 2: Housing Market Activity - Despite mortgage rates being near year-to-date lows, home sales have remained sluggish this fall, with mortgage applications for home purchases dropping by 3% compared to the previous week, and refinancing applications down by 1% [4] - The decline in purchase and refinance applications is attributed to continued economic uncertainty, including the impacts of the government shutdown, according to the President and CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association [5]

Core Viewpoint - A pullback in the 10-year Treasury yield has positively impacted home builder stocks, providing relief to the sector [1] Group 1: Impact on Home Builder Stocks - The decline in the 10-year Treasury yield has led to an increase in home builder stock prices, indicating a favorable market environment for the industry [1]

Mortgage Rate Trends - The average rate on a 30-year U.S. mortgage decreased to 6.3% from 6.34%, marking the lowest level in about a year [1] - The average rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages also fell to 5.53% from 5.55% [2] Influencing Factors - Mortgage rates are affected by the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, bond market expectations, and the trajectory of the 10-year Treasury yield, which was at 4.13% [3] - The 10-year yield has been increasing since it was around 4.02% on September 11 [3] Federal Reserve's Stance - Mortgage rates began to decline in late July ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision to cut its main interest rate for the first time in a year due to concerns over the U.S. job market [4] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell has indicated a cautious approach to future interest rate cuts, contrasting with some committee members advocating for quicker cuts [4] Historical Context - Previous rate cuts by the Fed do not guarantee a continued decline in mortgage rates, as seen last fall when rates increased after an initial cut [5]

Core Insights - Mortgage rates have increased for the second consecutive week, reaching an average of 6.34% for the 30-year fixed mortgage, up from 6.3% the previous week, and higher than the 6.12% average a year ago [1][2][5] Market Influences - Lenders set mortgage rates based on broader market forces, including the 10-year Treasury yield and the price of mortgage-backed securities [2][5] - The 10-year Treasury yields are closely linked to mortgage rates and fluctuate with new economic data and market expectations [4][5] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Open Market Committee cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points on September 17, marking its first reduction since December 2024, but did not provide strong guidance for future cuts, leading to increased mortgage rates [7][8][10] - Prior to the Fed's announcement, markets anticipated a rate cut, which caused Treasury yields and mortgage rates to dip temporarily [8][10] Economic Context - Mortgage rates are influenced by various factors, including the economy, inflation, government policies, and global events, as well as individual borrower characteristics such as credit score and debt-to-income ratio [5][11] - Current rates are expected to remain stable as markets assess the implications of a potential government shutdown [11][12]

Core Insights - Mortgage rates are expected to decline as long-term bond yields fall, which is typically positive for home buyers [1][2] - The decline in Treasury yields is attributed to weaker-than-expected jobs data and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which may deter potential buyers [3] Group 1: Mortgage Rates - The 10-year Treasury yield decreased by 0.043 percentage points to 4.106%, the lowest level since mid-September [2] - The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was reported at 6.37% in a recent survey [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The drop in Treasury yields followed the release of disappointing ADP jobs data, indicating potential economic weakness [3] - The government shutdown is contributing to uncertainty in the housing market, which may keep buyers from making purchases [3]

Group 1 - Mortgage rates have dropped to a three-year low, but there is uncertainty about future increases [1] - Historically, Fed cuts during a recession lower the 10-year Treasury yield, but current conditions do not follow this trend [1] - The market may experience volatility as investors could buy on rumors and sell on news [2] Group 2 - A potential sell-off in the 10-year Treasury is expected after the Fed announces a 25 basis point cut [3] - Current mortgage rates between 5.5% and 6.5% in commercial real estate are seen as positive for borrowers [3]

Mortgage rates have dropped by a half-point over the last year, according to Freddie Mac. But where are rates headed in the long term? Mortgage interest rates are determined by several factors, with the 10-year Treasury yield being a primary one. Mortgage rates are tuned to the government bond market Mortgage rate forecasts may be best derived from trends in 10-year Treasury note rates. While the two rates often track in the same direction, there is a spread between them that we will account for below. ...

Mortgage Rates Overview - Mortgage rates have not increased in eight weeks and have recently decreased, with the average 30-year fixed rate down 15 basis points to 6.35% as of September 11, 2025, compared to 6.20% a year ago [1][2] - Freddie Mac reports the highest year-over-year growth in purchase loan applications in over four years, indicating increased buyer interest [1] Federal Reserve Influence - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate since July 2025 after three cuts at the end of 2024, which typically influences mortgage rates indirectly [3][4] - The next Fed meeting is scheduled for September 16 and 17, with little expectation of a rate cut, although mortgage rates often fall in anticipation of such cuts [5] Treasury Yields and Mortgage Rates - Mortgage rates are more closely aligned with the 10-year Treasury yield, which was at 4.03% as of September 10, 2025, up from 3.65% a year prior [5][6] - The current average 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 6.35% reflects a spread of 2.32% over the 10-year Treasury yield [7] Housing Market Dynamics - The housing market is characterized by a supply-demand imbalance, with buyers outnumbering available homes, particularly for first-time buyers, leading to sustained high home prices [9] - The median sale price of single-family homes has increased from $208,400 in Q1 2009 to $410,800 by Q2 2025, indicating a long-term upward trend [10] Economic Conditions and Buyer Strategies - Speculation about a recession may not provide relief for buyers, as lower interest rates during recessions could increase demand for limited housing supply [11] - Buyers are advised to consider purchasing homes now rather than waiting for lower mortgage rates, as affordability also depends on home prices [8] Recommendations for Buyers - Strategies for buyers include considering smaller homes, condos, or fixer-uppers, and exploring financial tools like FHA 203(k) loans for renovations [12][16] - Buyers should also evaluate longer commutes for better housing options and consider 15-year mortgages for lower interest rates and faster equity building [19][17]