The average long-term U.S. mortgage rate edged up for the second week in a row, but remains just above its lowest level in more than three years. The benchmark 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate rose to 6.1% from 6.09% last week, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday. One year ago, the rate averaged 6.95%. Borrowing costs on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, popular with homeowners refinancing their home loans, also rose this week. That average rate inched up to 5.49% from 5.44% last week. A year ago, it w ...

If the 10-year Treasury yield reaches or exceeds 4.5%, it could be a challenge to the market, says BNY ...

Core Insights - Mortgage rates are currently stable, with the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.09%, the lowest in three years, but have slightly increased by 10 basis points recently [3][11] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates, but mortgage rates are influenced by a variety of factors beyond the Fed's decisions [4][11] - The bond market, particularly the 10-year Treasury yield, is the primary driver of 30-year mortgage rates, making them less predictable around Fed meetings [8][10] Mortgage Rate Trends - The average 30-year mortgage rate has seen fluctuations, with a notable increase of almost 1.25 percentage points following a Fed rate cut in late 2024, illustrating the complex relationship between Fed actions and mortgage rates [9][10] - Fannie Mae projects that 30-year mortgage rates will remain relatively stable, with a slight decrease from 6.1% to 6.0% expected through 2026 [13] Homebuyer Guidance - Timing the mortgage market is challenging, as rates can change for reasons unrelated to Fed decisions; buyers are advised to act when financially ready rather than waiting for a specific rate drop [12][15] - Existing homeowners with high mortgage rates (7% or 8%) may consider refinancing, but should evaluate the costs against potential savings to determine if it is worthwhile [14]

The average long-term U.S. mortgage rate ticked higher this week, but remains near its lowest level in more than three years. The benchmark 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate rose to 6.09% from 6.06% last week, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday. One year ago, the rate averaged 6.96%. Borrowing costs on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, popular with homeowners refinancing their home loans, also rose this week. That average rate inched up to 5.44%, up from 5.38% last week. A year ago, it was at 6.16%, Fre ...

Mortgage Rates - The average rate on the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage decreased to 6.21% from 6.22% last week, down from 6.72% a year ago [1][3] - The average rate on a 15-year fixed mortgage fell to 5.47% from 5.54% last week [3] Market Trends - Mortgage rates have remained within a narrow 10-basis point range over the last two months, with a decrease of half a percent compared to last year [3] - Purchase applications are 10% above the same time last year, indicating increased buyer activity [3] Economic Context - The Federal Reserve recently lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, which indirectly influences mortgage rates [4] - The 10-year Treasury yield was around 4.12% as of Thursday afternoon, which closely tracks mortgage rates [4] Buyer Conditions - Homebuyers are in a more favorable position now than a year ago, with mortgage rates easing into the low-6% range and inventory levels well above last year's [6] - Renters have also seen improved affordability, with rents falling for the 28th consecutive month in November [6]

Group 1 - The average long-term mortgage rate increased to 6.22% from 6.19% last week, compared to 6.6% a year ago [1] - The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose to 5.54% from 5.44% last week, while it was 5.84% a year ago [1] Group 2 - Mortgage rates are influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, bond market investors' expectations for the economy, and inflation [2] - Mortgage rates generally follow the trajectory of the 10-year Treasury yield, which is used by lenders to price home loans [2]

Core Viewpoint - The average rate on a 30-year U.S. mortgage has increased slightly but remains close to its lowest point of the year [1][2] Group 1: Mortgage Rate Changes - The average long-term mortgage rate rose to 6.22% from 6.19% last week, down from 6.6% a year ago [2] - The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 5.54% from 5.44% last week, compared to 5.84% a year ago [2] Group 2: Influencing Factors - Mortgage rates are affected by the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, bond market expectations regarding the economy and inflation, and generally follow the 10-year Treasury yield [3] - The 10-year Treasury yield was reported at 4.12% at midday Thursday, slightly higher than the previous week [3]

Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut the fed funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75% in a 9–3 vote, marking the first dissent in six years [1] - Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that this rate cut does not signal the start of a full easing cycle, as the Fed is now in "wait" mode [2] - The updated Dot Plot suggests only one additional quarter-point cut in 2026, with some officials predicting no cuts or even a potential increase next year, highlighting divisions within the committee [3] Economic Outlook - Powell expressed optimism about the economy, projecting growth above trend and a gradual decrease in inflation, with unemployment expected to peak at 4.5% before declining [4] - He noted that inflation could have been in the low-2% range without tariffs, and anticipates a significant easing of inflation in the second half of 2026 [5] Market Reactions - Following the Fed's decision, all three major indexes rose, with the Russell 2000 gaining approximately 1.3%, indicating a positive market response to the rate cut [6] - The 10-year Treasury yield spiked to a three-month high earlier in the week due to comments from Kevin Hassett, a potential Fed Chair replacement, who advocated for data-dependent decision-making rather than a predetermined rate path [7][9] Treasury Yield Dynamics - The 10-year Treasury yield is crucial as it influences borrowing costs across the economy, affects stock valuations, and can lead to a rotation of funds from equities to bonds [10][13] - Powell suggested that the rising yield could reflect expectations of higher economic growth, partly driven by increased productivity from AI [20] AI Economic Impact - A study from OpenAI revealed that AI tools are saving workers 40 to 60 minutes daily, potentially translating to $1.6 trillion in economic cost savings, which is about 6% of U.S. GDP [22][24] - If productivity gains from AI increase to two or three hours saved per day, the economic value could exceed $10 trillion [27] Investment Opportunities - The Power Portfolio, created by investment experts, aims to identify companies that will benefit from the ongoing economic realignment driven by AI and other technological advancements [28][31] - The focus is on smaller, overlooked U.S. companies that are positioned to capitalize on the significant capital flows into AI infrastructure and advanced manufacturing [30][31]

Core Insights - Mortgage rates have slightly decreased, with the average 30-year mortgage rate at 6.27%, down from 6.3% the previous week, and the average 15-year mortgage rate at 5.52%, down from 5.53% [1][4] Group 1: Mortgage Rates and Economic Factors - The 10-year Treasury yield, which closely tracks mortgage rates, has been volatile due to ongoing trade tensions between the US and China, particularly following President Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1 [2] - The ongoing government shutdown has delayed several key economic data releases, contributing to the narrow range of mortgage rate movements in recent weeks, as noted by a senior economist at Zillow Home Loans [3][5] Group 2: Housing Market Activity - Despite mortgage rates being near year-to-date lows, home sales have remained sluggish this fall, with mortgage applications for home purchases dropping by 3% compared to the previous week, and refinancing applications down by 1% [4] - The decline in purchase and refinance applications is attributed to continued economic uncertainty, including the impacts of the government shutdown, according to the President and CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association [5]

Core Viewpoint - A pullback in the 10-year Treasury yield has positively impacted home builder stocks, providing relief to the sector [1] Group 1: Impact on Home Builder Stocks - The decline in the 10-year Treasury yield has led to an increase in home builder stock prices, indicating a favorable market environment for the industry [1]