Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential risks and strategies of Taiwan's leader Lai Ching-te in the context of the upcoming 2028 elections, suggesting that if he perceives a low chance of winning, he may resort to creating crises both internally and externally to maintain power [2][10]. Group 1: Lai Ching-te's Position and Actions - Lai Ching-te has made strong statements regarding Taiwan's defense against potential military aggression from mainland China, emphasizing a commitment to not surrender [2]. - The Taiwanese defense department has introduced a new safety guideline manual aimed at educating citizens on discussing crises and military threats, indicating a heightened state of alert [2]. - Recent military exhibitions in Taiwan showcased advanced weaponry, reflecting a focus on defense capabilities amid rising tensions [2]. Group 2: Public Sentiment and Political Landscape - Recent polls indicate that Lai Ching-te's approval rating is at 32.7%, with a significant portion of the population dissatisfied with his handling of cross-strait relations [5]. - A majority of 63% of Taiwanese citizens express dissatisfaction with Lai's performance regarding relations with mainland China, suggesting a challenging political environment for him [5]. Group 3: Potential Crisis Creation - The article posits that if Lai assesses his chances of winning the 2028 election as low, he may deliberately create crises to galvanize support and distract from his political shortcomings [8][10]. - Historical references are made to former leader Chen Shui-bian, who allegedly manufactured a crisis to consolidate power, suggesting a precedent for such actions [9][10]. - There are concerns that Lai may escalate tensions with mainland China or implement emergency measures, such as declaring martial law, to secure his position ahead of the elections [10][11].