► 文 观察者网 柳白 美国智库近日抛出的一份涉华内部报告，又在"台海冲突"议题上大做文章，也给不少对华鹰派人物浇来 冷水，以至于特朗普政府高官要求删减报告内容，避免将美军弱点暴露给对手。 据福克斯新闻1月20日报道，该报告由美国知名保守派智库传统基金会发布，模拟中美在台海爆发高强 度冲突的场景。 这份经过删减的名为"潮汐波"（TIDALWAVE）的报告警告称，美军在冲突爆发后的数周内就会达 到"崩溃点"，持续作战能力远远弱于中国，这将导致美军在西太平洋遭受"灾难性损失"。报告呼吁美国 紧急扩充弹药储备、强化后勤基建、分散前沿基地，否则美军将面临结构性战败风险。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 报告作者表示，正是这些结论促使美国高级国家安全官员要求删减内容，他们担心对手可能利用报告结 论，或借此识别美军及其盟友的军事弱点。 与传统的桌面兵棋推演不同，"潮汐波"采用人工智能驱动模型，进行了数千次模拟迭代，追踪武器平 台、弹药和燃料的损耗如何随时间推移不断加剧，推演完全依托开源的政府、学术、产业及商业信息。 报告的未删减版本已提供给获授权的美国政府部门，仅供内部使用。 传 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential risks and strategies of Taiwan's leader Lai Ching-te in the context of the upcoming 2028 elections, suggesting that if he perceives a low chance of winning, he may resort to creating crises both internally and externally to maintain power [2][10]. Group 1: Lai Ching-te's Position and Actions - Lai Ching-te has made strong statements regarding Taiwan's defense against potential military aggression from mainland China, emphasizing a commitment to not surrender [2]. - The Taiwanese defense department has introduced a new safety guideline manual aimed at educating citizens on discussing crises and military threats, indicating a heightened state of alert [2]. - Recent military exhibitions in Taiwan showcased advanced weaponry, reflecting a focus on defense capabilities amid rising tensions [2]. Group 2: Public Sentiment and Political Landscape - Recent polls indicate that Lai Ching-te's approval rating is at 32.7%, with a significant portion of the population dissatisfied with his handling of cross-strait relations [5]. - A majority of 63% of Taiwanese citizens express dissatisfaction with Lai's performance regarding relations with mainland China, suggesting a challenging political environment for him [5]. Group 3: Potential Crisis Creation - The article posits that if Lai assesses his chances of winning the 2028 election as low, he may deliberately create crises to galvanize support and distract from his political shortcomings [8][10]. - Historical references are made to former leader Chen Shui-bian, who allegedly manufactured a crisis to consolidate power, suggesting a precedent for such actions [9][10]. - There are concerns that Lai may escalate tensions with mainland China or implement emergency measures, such as declaring martial law, to secure his position ahead of the elections [10][11].

9月19日，美国知名媒体《外交政策》（foreign policy）刊登了该刊采访所谓台湾驻美代表俞大㵢的报道。在采访中，俞大㵢表示，如果 大陆发起统一之战，"受影响的不仅仅是我们，如果发生冲突，中国的港口将被封锁，我们的港口将被封锁，日本的港口、韩国的港口也 将被封锁。世界贸易基本上会陷入停滞（It's not just us—if there's a conflict, the Chinese ports will be sealed, ours will be sealed, the Japanese, the Koreans'. World trade will basically be put to a halt）"。 针对上述信息，台湾《中国时报》9月22日发表台湾国际战略学会理事长王昆义的署名评论。王昆义在评论中指出大陆不会接受赖清德投 降，俞大㵢"把台海冲突或战争无限上纲到区域冲突的想法，更是凸显赖政府应对台海冲突，不会仅局限于台海的局部范围，而是可能把 它扩大成为区域战争。这种战争思维，本身就流露出好战的本质，台湾存在一个'好战的政府'，这就是大陆在追求国家统一与民族复兴时 最大的隐忧"。 ...