GS China Economic Outlook Patience and Resilience (耐心与韧性） June 2025 Hui Shan Lisheng Wang Xinquan Chen Yuting Yang Chelsea Song Chief China Economist China Economist China Economist China Economist China Economist Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. +852-2978-6634 +852-3966-4004 +852-2978-2418 +852-2978-7283 +852-2978-0106 Hui.Shan@gs.com Lisheng.Wang@gs.com Xinquan.Chen@gs.com Yuting.y.Yang@gs.com Chelse ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that China achieved a growth target of "around 5%" in 2024, with 70% of this growth driven by exports and export-related manufacturing investment [7]. - For 2025, the report anticipates a decline in real GDP growth to 4.0%, influenced by elevated US tariffs on Chinese goods, which are expected to impose a 2.2 percentage point drag on GDP growth [10][20]. - The report expresses caution regarding medium- to long-term GDP growth in China due to challenges related to demographics, debt, and de-risking, although there are moderate upside risks from faster AI adoption [9]. Summary by Sections Economic Forecasts - The report provides a detailed forecast for China's GDP growth, projecting 5.0% for 2024 and 4.0% for 2025, with a further decline to 3.5% in 2026 [15]. - It notes that domestic demand is expected to contribute positively, with consumption growth projected at 5.3% in 2025 [11]. Tariff Impact - The report indicates that the effective US tariff rate on China has reached 107%, significantly affecting trade dynamics and economic growth [20]. - It emphasizes that the ongoing policy easing in China may not fully offset the negative impacts of these tariffs [12]. Policy Measures - The report outlines expected policy measures, including further monetary easing and fiscal stimulus, to support economic growth amid external pressures [31]. - It anticipates an increase in the augmented fiscal deficit to 14.5% of GDP in 2025, up from 10.4% in 2024 [33]. Sectoral Insights - The report discusses the property sector, noting that construction activity has sharply contracted compared to previous peaks, raising questions about the sustainability of any recovery [52][56]. - It also highlights that high-tech manufacturing has been a stable growth driver over the past decade, with expectations that these sectors will continue to outperform broader manufacturing [80][84].