45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit
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Green Plains(GPRE) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript
2026-02-05 15:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2025, the company reported a net income of $11.9 million, or $0.17 per diluted share, compared to a net loss of $54.9 million, or -$0.86 per diluted share in Q4 2024 [12] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 was $49.1 million, an improvement of over $67 million compared to Q4 2024's adjusted EBITDA of -$18.2 million [6][13] - Revenue for Q4 2025 was $428.8 million, down 26.6% year-over-year due to the impact of the Obion plant sale and idling of the Fairmont facility [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company increased its maximum production capacity to 730 million gallons per year, a 10% increase from the previous capacity [5] - Four plants reached historical production volumes, and seven plants achieved record ethanol yields [4] - The startup of CO2 compression equipment at three Nebraska plants is now fully operational, contributing to cash flow and lowering carbon intensity (CI) scores [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Ethanol margins remained resilient in Q4 2025 due to strong domestic blending and export demand, supported by a record corn crop [20] - Ethanol exports set a record last year, with expectations for increased demand in 2026 [21] - Corn oil markets remained steady, contributing positively to gross margins, while protein pricing faced pressure [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on five strategic priorities: improving energy efficiency, evaluating carbon sequestration opportunities, debottlenecking or expanding facilities, increasing on-site grain storage, and balancing capital structure [23][24] - The company aims to be a low-cost, low-carbon biofuels producer, with ongoing projects to reduce energy consumption and operational costs [24][25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the operational execution and the potential for carbon monetization, with expectations of at least $188 million of adjusted EBITDA from carbon-related activities in 2026 [8][9] - The company is optimistic about the regulatory environment supporting biofuels and the potential for year-round E15 adoption [9][62] Other Important Information - The company refinanced a majority of its 2027 convertible notes through a new $200 million convertible note due in 2030 [13] - Consolidated liquidity at the end of the quarter included $230.1 million in cash equivalents and restricted cash, with $325 million in working capital revolver availability [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Interest in 2026 45Z credits - Management confirmed active marketing of 2026 45Z credits and expressed confidence in the platform's ability to deliver credits [28] Question: Upside potential for carbon opportunities - Management indicated numerous plant efficiency projects with fast returns and potential for additional investments to lower energy consumption [29][30] Question: Q4 cash flow from operations - Management explained that Q4 cash flow was lower than EBITDA due to timing of cash receipts from carbon earnings and accelerated receivables [33] Question: Q1 ethanol EBITDA outlook - Management noted that while Q1 is typically a low point, the company is in a better position compared to the previous year, with strong operational efficiency [35] Question: CI score and potential improvements - Management discussed the potential for further reductions in CI scores due to new guidance and ongoing projects [51][52]