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摩根士丹利:英伟达-中国台湾地区的数据比人们认为的更符合我们的观点
摩根· 2025-05-15 15:24
Investment Rating - The report assigns NVIDIA Corp. a stock rating of Overweight and identifies it as a Top Pick in the semiconductors sector [8][25]. Core Insights - The report highlights that recent data from Taiwan indicates a significant increase in rack shipments, with approximately 1500 racks shipped in April 2025, which aligns with the firm's estimates and alleviates investor concerns [1][17]. - There is a noted shift towards ARM processors and liquid cooling in the ecosystem, driven by the adoption of NVIDIA's GB200 technology, which is expected to enhance revenue growth estimates for 2025 by 50-100% [3][11]. - The report emphasizes that the current supply chain challenges are manageable, and improvements in rack shipments should positively impact NVIDIA's stock performance [22][24]. Summary by Sections Shipment Data - The Taiwan ODM team reported close to 1500 racks shipped in April 2025, an increase from 1000 in the first quarter, suggesting a positive trend in production [1][17]. - The report anticipates that if the current monthly shipment rate continues, NVIDIA could reach approximately 15,000 racks by the end of the year, which is a significant improvement [18][20]. Financial Projections - The report projects NVIDIA's revenue to grow significantly, with GAAP revenue estimates of $130.5 billion for 2025 and $190.8 billion for 2026, reflecting strong demand in the data center business [38]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from $2.99 in fiscal year 2025 to $4.09 in 2026, indicating robust growth potential [8][38]. Market Position - NVIDIA's competitive position is expected to strengthen with broader availability of Blackwell products later in 2025, driven by increased demand for AI/ML hardware solutions [30][34]. - The report notes that NVIDIA's data center business is likely to be a key growth driver over the next five years, fueled by enthusiasm for generative AI [30][34].