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摩根士丹利邢自强:2040年将迎来中国医药界的DeepSeek时刻
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-15 11:31
Core Insights - China is demonstrating significant breakthroughs in technological innovation, characterized by three core advantages: industrial chain clusters, a surplus of STEM graduates, and a vast market scale that is difficult for other economies to replicate [1][6]. Industrial Chain Clusters - In regions like the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, thousands of suppliers and engineers are concentrated within a short distance, providing a competitive edge that countries like Mexico, India, and Southeast Asia lack [3][8]. - China graduates nearly 5 million STEM students annually, surpassing the combined total of Europe and the United States [3][8]. AI and Technology - Chinese companies are achieving technological catch-up in the AI sector with only 1/10 of the investment compared to the U.S., and they account for a significant portion of global AI talent [3][8]. - By 2027-2028, China is projected to achieve a 50% domestic production rate in GPU technology, marking a significant advancement [3][8]. Robotics and Automotive Industry - China holds a 60% share of the global leading companies in humanoid robotics, with a strong cost advantage in components like arms and hydraulic systems [4][9]. - It is estimated that 30% of the global increase in humanoid robot supply may come from China in the future [4][9]. Smart Driving and Biopharmaceuticals - China leads globally in smart driving adoption and is experiencing explosive growth in the biopharmaceutical sector [4][10]. - By 2040, it is projected that over one-third of new innovative drugs approved by the U.S. FDA will originate from China [4][10]. Traditional Industries and Export Market - China monopolizes the global refining and processing of rare earths and lithium batteries, continuously enhancing its industrial chain competitiveness [4][10]. - Currently, China accounts for approximately 14% of global exports, with projections suggesting this could rise to nearly 16% or higher in five years, potentially exceeding 17% [4][10]. - The three core advantages and innovations in emerging industries are expected to solidify China's position in the global export market [4][10].