AI驱动的存储“超级周期”
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20cm速递|科创综指ETF国泰(589630)回调超2%,行业景气预期受关注,回调或可布局
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2026-01-29 07:32
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a significant supply-demand gap in the global DRAM market by 2026, with demand expected to grow by 20%-25% year-on-year, while supply is projected to increase only by 15%-20% [1] - AI servers are identified as the primary driver of demand, with their DRAM demand share surpassing 50% for the first time [1] - Price trends indicate a continued increase in 2026, with a projected 70% rise in the contract price of DDR5 RDIMM by Q4 2025, followed by an expected increase of over 40% in Q1 2026 [1] - High-capacity DDR5 RDIMM prices are expected to see even more significant increases, while LPDDR4X/5X prices are anticipated to remain high due to tight capacity allocation [1] - Strong downstream demand is indicated by a projected 25% increase in capital expenditures from North American cloud providers in 2026, driving demand for HBM3E/4, high-capacity DDR5, and eSSD [1] - The introduction of NVIDIA's Rubin architecture is expected to significantly boost LPDDR5X demand, with single CPU capacities reaching 15TB, more than tripling from previous generations [1] - The storage industry is entering an AI-driven "super cycle," with price increases expected to persist throughout 2026 [1] Group 2 - The Kexin Composite Index ETF Guotai (589630) tracks the Kexin Composite Index (000680), which has a daily price fluctuation limit of 20% [2] - This index reflects the overall performance of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board in the Shanghai Stock Exchange, comprising companies listed on the board across various high-tech industries and strategic emerging sectors, including new-generation information technology, biomedicine, new materials, and new energy [2]