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高盛:预计美联储年内降息三次…康耐特、易鑫集团等调研纪要
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-07-02 05:38
Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates three times this year, down from a previous estimate of one cut, and expects two additional cuts in 2026, lowering the terminal rate prediction to 3%-3.25% from 3.5%-3.75% [1] - The next rate cut is anticipated in September, moved up from December, as initial evidence suggests that the impact of tariffs on monthly inflation is less than expected [1] Group 2: S&P 500 Performance - The S&P 500 index is entering its historically strongest month, with an average return of 1.67% in July since 1928 [4] Group 3: China Macro Economic Data - The Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for China rose significantly from 48.3 in May to 50.4 in June, exceeding market expectations [6] - Key sub-indices showed improvement: output index increased from 47.5 to 52.1, new orders from 47.4 to 50.2, and employment from 48.4 to 48.7 [6] - The new export orders index rose from 46.2 in May to 49.4 in June, although external demand remains weak [7] Group 4: Conant Optical (康耐特光学) Insights - Conant Optical is expanding its business from spectacle lenses to AI/AR glasses, anticipating sustained growth in its core business and optimistic about the demand for AI/AR lenses [8] - The company can provide high-refractive-index lightweight lenses, which are crucial for user comfort and optical performance [9] - The AI/AR glasses market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 56% from 2024 to 2030, reaching 7 million units by 2030 [10] Group 5: E-Hi Auto Services (易鑫集团) Overview - E-Hi Auto has a stable revenue structure, with self-operated business accounting for 20% and loan facilitation and fintech services making up 80% [16][17] - The company plans to focus on two strategic areas: used cars and fintech, with used cars expected to account for at least 60% of GMV next year [18] - E-Hi's market share in automotive finance is approximately 2%-3%, with expectations for growth as the penetration of used car finance increases [20]