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Productivity gains fuel U.S. growth while hiring slows
Fortune· 2026-01-12 13:10
Economic Overview - The U.S. economy ended 2025 with a combination of sluggish job growth and increasing productivity [1] - Nonfarm payrolls rose by 50,000 in December 2025, missing the Dow Jones estimate of 73,000 and slowing from November's revised gain of 56,000 [2] - For the entirety of 2025, payrolls averaged a growth of 49,000 jobs per month, significantly down from 168,000 in 2024 [2] Employment Trends - Employment in food services and drinking places added 27,000 jobs in December, maintaining an average of 12,000 jobs per month in 2025, similar to 2024 [6] - Health care employment rose by 21,000 jobs in December, with hospitals contributing 16,000 of those, averaging 34,000 jobs per month in 2025, down from 56,000 in 2024 [7] Productivity Insights - Despite weak job growth, the U.S. economy is expected to continue expanding, with a noted decoupling between growth and hiring [4] - Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased by 4.9% in Q3 2025, with output rising by 5.4% while hours worked only increased by 0.5% [5] Hiring Dynamics - Private payroll growth has weakened throughout 2025, with firms focusing on cost control amid geopolitical uncertainties and high financing costs [9] - Hiring has become more selective, with CFOs prioritizing efficiency and automation over broad workforce expansion [10] Corporate Bankruptcy Trends - Large U.S. corporate bankruptcies reached a five-year high in December 2025, with filings increasing to 72 from 63 in November, totaling 785 for the year, the highest since 2010 [13]