AI Correction
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How To Profit From AI Correction: 5 Defensive Plays And 4 Sectors Set To Surge - iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China ETF (NASDAQ:EMXC), United States Copper Index Fund ETV (ARCA:CPER)
Benzinga· 2025-09-25 16:09
Core Insights - The artificial intelligence sector is showing signs of a potential significant correction, with AI stocks, particularly the "Magnificent Seven," making lower highs since December 2024, diverging from broader market performance, a pattern that historically precedes major corrections [1][20]. Hedging Strategies - The I/O Fund has been 100% hedged since December 27, 2024, as investors seek alternative opportunities amid high AI unicorn valuations of $2.7 trillion despite limited revenue and profits [2][20]. - Volatility ETFs, such as the ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY), offer leveraged exposure to short-term VIX futures, making them effective during market stress, with current VIX hedging premiums at 2.2% for a one-year put option on the S&P 500 [3]. - Inverse ETFs like the ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (SQQQ) provide direct negative correlation to major indices, with SQQQ surging 30% during recent Nasdaq declines [5][6]. Defensive Instruments - Long-duration Treasury bonds, particularly the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), benefit from flight-to-quality dynamics during equity corrections, averaging 2.1% gains during significant VIX spikes [7]. - Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) offer protection against inflation and downside protection during market stress [8]. Defensive Sector ETFs - Consumer staples and utilities sectors provide stability during market corrections, with the Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC) offering exposure to recession-resistant companies [9][10]. Sectors Positioned for Growth - The energy sector is expected to benefit from AI's power demands, with companies like Constellation Energy anticipating 10% annual earnings growth through 2028 driven by AI demand [11]. - The demand for copper is expected to rise significantly due to infrastructure development for AI, with the iShares Copper and Metals Mining ETF (ICOP) providing exposure to copper mining operations [12][13]. - Small-cap value stocks are showing historic outperformance versus tech stocks, with the Russell 2000 Value index performing strongly as investors rotate from expensive tech stocks [14][15]. Geographic Diversification - Emerging market equities provide low correlation to US tech stocks, offering diversification benefits during AI corrections, with ETFs like the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) gaining popularity [16][17]. Current Market Dynamics - Hedge fund positioning indicates increasing caution toward US stocks, with major funds adjusting their portfolios despite the AI boom [20]. - Market technicals suggest the S&P 500 must hold above 5860–5885 to avoid confirming a drop into the 5600 region, with a break below these levels potentially triggering a larger correction [21].