There are problems that you cannot solve without using AI, and that's the part that we see so much opportunity for the world. I mean, it goes back to the history of every general-purpose technology. The countries that grow the most over the course of years and decades are not necessarily the ones that produce it.It's the ones that figure out how to use it across the economy. That's what this report’s about. What this dataset provides is a broad view of what is happening across platforms. And we have a full ...

Summary of the 2026 China Economics Outlook Industry Overview - **Industry**: Chinese Economy - **Focus**: Economic growth, inflation trends, fiscal policy, and investment dynamics Key Points Economic Growth Projections - **Nominal GDP Growth**: Expected to be subdued at **4.1%** in 2026, with a rebound to **4.8%** in 2027 [3][10][11] - **Real GDP Growth**: Projected at **4.8%** in 2026 and **4.6%** in 2027, down from approximately **5%** in 2025 [10][11] - **CPI and Deflation**: CPI is expected to remain low due to property market drag and weak wage growth, with a gradual shift from deflation to lowflation anticipated by 2027 [4][80] Inflation Dynamics - **GDP Deflator**: Expected to be **-0.7%** in 2026, turning slightly positive at **0.2%** in 2027 [80] - **CPI Trends**: Core CPI is projected to remain subdued until **2H26-2027**, with gradual improvements expected as property market pressures ease [80][82] Policy and Fiscal Measures - **Fiscal Policy**: Modestly expansionary with an augmented fiscal deficit expected to widen by **0.5ppt** of GDP, focusing on technology localization and infrastructure [5][55] - **Monetary Policy**: Anticipated policy rate cuts of **10-20bps** and RRR reductions of **25-50bps** in 2026 to support fiscal measures [59] - **Public Spending**: Shift towards public services with growth in public consumption expected to reach **5.3%** in 2026 and **5.5%** in 2027 [25][26] Investment Trends - **Investment Growth**: Real gross fixed capital formation growth projected to remain soft at **2.4%** in 2026 and **2.2%** in 2027, influenced by anti-involution policies and local government financing constraints [31][32] - **Manufacturing Investment**: Expected to grow at low single digits due to overcapacity and deflationary pressures [33][36] - **Property Sector**: Continues to face significant challenges with high inventory levels and weak demand, leading to a contraction in property investment [35][41] Consumption Patterns - **Household Consumption**: Expected to slow to **4.2%** in 2026, with a rebound to **4.4%** in 2027 as labor market conditions improve [15][19] - **Social Welfare Spending**: Gradual increases in social welfare spending anticipated, focusing on education, healthcare, and elder care [18][25] Risks and Challenges - **Economic Risks**: Potential for renewed trade tensions and a US recession could exacerbate supply-demand imbalances and deflationary pressures [6] - **Implementation Challenges**: Central government support for housing may face practical challenges in execution [5][56] Global Context - **Export Dynamics**: Net exports expected to contribute **1.3ppt** to growth in both 2026 and 2027, despite a slight moderation in export growth due to earlier front-loading effects [41][42] - **Global Demand**: Stable global growth projected at **3.1%** in 2026 and **3.3%** in 2027, supporting China's export resilience [43] AI and Technology Investment - **AI-Driven Growth**: Anticipated capex boom in AI-related sectors expected to offset property market drag by **0.2-0.3ppt** of real GDP in 2026-27 [47][48] Conclusion - The outlook for the Chinese economy in 2026 reflects a cautious approach to growth, with a focus on gradual rebalancing and addressing deflationary pressures while navigating global uncertainties and domestic challenges [68][79]