Market Overview - U.S. stock futures are slightly higher after a decline on Wednesday, driven by concerns over a "hiring recession" following the November jobs report [1] - The November Consumer Price Index is anticipated as a crucial inflation indicator that could influence market trends for the remaining trading days of the year [1] Treasury Bonds and Market Projections - The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.13%, while the two-year bond was at 3.46% [2] - The CME Group's FedWatch tool indicates a 73.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates [2] Stock Performance - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) increased by 0.23% to $672.95, and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) rose by 0.55% to $603.70 in premarket trading [2] - Accenture PLC shares decreased by 0.27% ahead of its fiscal first-quarter results, with expected earnings of $3.75 per share on revenue of $18.52 billion [6] - Micron Technology Inc. shares rose by 9.61% following a better-than-expected first-quarter performance and a strong outlook for the second quarter [6] - FedEx Corp. shares fell by 0.07% pre-market, with analysts expecting earnings of $4.10 per share on revenue of $22.79 billion [6] - Nike Inc. shares increased by 0.44% ahead of its fiscal second-quarter results, with expected earnings of $0.38 per share on revenue of $12.22 billion [13] Sector Performance - On Wednesday, Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services sectors performed well, while Energy, Health Care, Real Estate, and Financials sectors saw declines [8] Economic Data and Market Sentiment - Initial jobless claims and the November consumer price index report are set to be released, which will provide insights into price pressures and regional factory activity [14] - Asian markets closed mixed, with some indices in the green, while most European markets opened higher [15]

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio warns that the Federal Reserve's decision to halt quantitative tightening signals the start of a dangerous cycle of "stimulating into a bubble" rather than addressing economic weaknesses [1][2]. Federal Reserve Actions - The Fed will end quantitative tightening on December 1, 2025, maintaining a balance sheet of $6.5 trillion and redirecting agency security income into Treasury bills instead of mortgage-backed securities [2]. - Dalio perceives this shift as significant, occurring alongside large fiscal deficits and strong private credit creation, rather than merely a technical maneuver [2]. Market Conditions - The S&P 500 earnings yield stands at 4.4%, slightly above the 10-year Treasury yield of 4%, resulting in an equity risk premium of just 0.4% [3]. - Current economic conditions contrast sharply with previous quantitative easing periods, as the economy is growing at 2% annually, unemployment is at 4.3%, and inflation exceeds the Fed's 2% target, currently over 3% [4]. Investment Implications - Dalio suggests that the current easing will inflate a bubble rather than mitigate a downturn, with AI stocks already identified as being in bubble territory according to his indicators [5]. - The combination of significant fiscal deficits, shortened Treasury maturities, and central bank balance sheet expansion exemplifies "classic Big Debt Cycle late cycle dynamics" [5]. Market Liquidity Insights - Analysts note that while discussions around QE and QT are prevalent, actual liquidity began to increase between October and December 2022, coinciding with the end of tightening [6]. - Concerns are raised that crypto markets, which are sensitive to liquidity conditions, may not find a bottom until actual quantitative easing is initiated, rather than just halting tightening [6].

Group 1 - The price of gold reached a record high of $3,757.60 per ounce, indicating investor fear and a search for safe havens, while the S&P 500 also hit a new all-time high at 6,664.36, reflecting optimism in the stock market [1][2] - Deutsche Bank's analysis suggests that investors are simultaneously bullish on equities and fearful of significant downside risks, highlighting a complex market sentiment [3] - Historical context shows that high gold prices often correlate with economic uncertainty, as seen in September when gold prices surpassed their inflation-adjusted peak from January 1980, a period marked by recession fears [4] Group 2 - Current investor fears include persistent U.S. inflation above target, potential government shutdowns, and concerns over a slowdown in payrolls, which have led to expectations of rapid interest rate cuts [5] - There is speculation about AI stocks being in a bubble, reminiscent of the dot-com boom, which previously caused a decline in gold prices due to over-optimism in tech stocks [6]