Core Insights - The toy category is experiencing a resurgence in Q3 2025, with a 14% year-over-year increase in licensed toys, driven by various themes including video games and sports [3][4] - The U.S. consumer's response to tariffs will significantly influence Q4 performance, with the toy industry showing resilience due to emotional connections and trends like adult self-gifting [4] - The U.S. toy market saw a 7% increase in dollar sales from January to September, indicating a return to growth after two stagnant years, primarily fueled by collectibles [7] Industry Trends - Seven out of eleven toy categories tracked by Circana reported dollar growth, with six categories showing unit growth [3] - Collectibles are a major driver of toy sales, with a notable 33% increase compared to the previous year, particularly in trading card games and action figures [7] - The toy industry benefits from trends such as nostalgia and digital wellness, which are expected to influence holiday purchases [4] Company Developments - Mattel projected its tariff exposure to be below $100 million but warned that the full impact may be felt in Q4 [5] - Toys R Us is planning to open over 30 new flagship and seasonal stores to compete for consumer spending during the holiday season [6]