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摩根大通:中国替代数据追踪图表集_运往美国的集装箱航运全面复苏,政府债券发行强劲
摩根· 2025-07-07 15:44
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific securities Core Insights - Government bond issuance remained strong in June, reaching approximately 1.4 trillion yuan, with net government bond issuance at 50% of the full-year quota approved in March, indicating a faster pace than in recent years [7][9][16] - Container shipping from China to the US saw a significant increase in June, with tonnage averaging 41% higher than May and 19% higher than a year ago, suggesting a recovery in trade activity [7][28] - New home sales in 30 major cities fell by 8.6% year-on-year in June, indicating a contraction in the housing market, while secondary home sales also declined by 2.1% year-on-year [7][45] - Auto retail sales rose by 24% year-on-year for the first three weeks of June, with new energy vehicle (NEV) sales increasing by 38% year-on-year, reflecting a positive trend in consumer demand [7][45] Government Bond Issuance and Liquidity Operations - Overall government bond issuance in June was strong, with a total of 1.4-1.5 trillion yuan, maintaining a solid pace despite a moderation in special CGB issuance [9][16] - Year-to-date CGB issuance reached 51% of the full-year target, while special LGB issuance accounted for 49% of its full-year target [16][18] - Liquidity injections through MLF and OMOs were recorded, stabilizing CGB yields around 1.65% [9][16] Shipping and Logistics - The deadweight tonnage of departing container ships increased by 9.4% year-on-year in June, indicating a robust export growth [35] - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) rose significantly, with increases of 39% to USEC and 28% to USWC compared to the end of May [35][36] Housing, Consumption, and Production - The decline in new home sales and secondary home sales suggests ongoing weakness in the housing market, with confidence indices remaining subdued [45][46] - Mixed operating rates were observed across various sectors, with increases in all-steel tire and petroleum plants, while semi-steel tire plants showed little change [45][46] Food and Commodity Prices - Agricultural food prices increased by 0.2% year-on-year in June, while pork wholesale prices dropped by 16.3% year-on-year, reflecting a high base effect from the previous year [78][79] - Commodity prices showed mixed trends, with increases in copper and aluminum prices, while cement and steel rebar prices declined [78][79]