Summary of Conference Call on China Spirits Industry Industry Overview - The spirits industry in China is currently facing challenges due to the ongoing impact of the anti-extravagance policy, which has affected consumer demand and retail momentum. [1][2][11] - The third quarter of 2025 (3Q25) is expected to be the trough for the industry, with a projected sales decline of 5% to 27% across various brands, excluding Moutai and Jiugui. [1][2][21] Key Points and Arguments Demand and Sales Trends - Retail momentum is anticipated to remain weak, particularly during the peak season due to fewer holiday days compared to previous years. [1] - A significant decline in retail volume is expected, with estimates of a 30% drop in August and a 15-20% decline during the peak season. [11] - The wholesale pricing remains under pressure, with notable declines in prices for key brands like Feitian Moutai and Common Wuliangye. [19][27] Shipment and Inventory Management - Spirits companies are prioritizing channel health by implementing deeper destocking and tighter shipment controls to ease distributor financing burdens. [1][2] - The trend of controlling shipments is crucial for maintaining channel inventory and supporting wholesale prices, especially for high-end spirits. [18][27] Financial Forecasts and Revisions - Sales and net profit forecasts for super-premium and upper-mid-end spirits have been revised down by up to 6% and 17% respectively for 2025E-27E. [2][42] - Despite the cautious outlook, target multiples have been raised by 9-19% to reflect a more normalized valuation level amid market re-rating. [2] Product Strategy and Market Positioning - Companies are focusing on product strategy to navigate the current market challenges, including reinforcing mid-end and mass portfolios and innovating lower-degree liquor products for younger consumers. [11] - The emphasis on residential banquets and product mix shifts is seen as a potential catalyst for recovery. [11] Dividend and Shareholder Returns - There is potential for enhancement in shareholder returns, with increased dividend payout forecasts for companies like Wuliangye. [11][43] Additional Important Insights - The anti-extravagance policy's impact is expected to gradually normalize, potentially boosting sentiment during the 2026 Chinese New Year holiday season. [11] - The affordability of high-end spirits has improved, which may support residential demand as policy headwinds ease. [31] - The spirits sector has seen a rotation towards laggards, indicating a market sentiment shift towards recovery narratives. [12][42] Conclusion - The China spirits industry is navigating a challenging environment with significant policy impacts affecting demand and pricing. However, strategic adjustments in shipment control, product offerings, and potential improvements in affordability may provide pathways for recovery in the coming years. [1][2][11][12]

Kweichow Moutai (600519.SS) 2Q25 Results Review Company Overview - **Company**: Kweichow Moutai - **Ticker**: 600519.SS - **Industry**: Consumer Staples (Alcoholic Beverages) Key Financial Results - **1H25 Results**: Sales increased by 9.1% year-over-year (yoy) to Rmb89.4 billion, and net profit (NP) rose by 8.9% yoy to Rmb45.4 billion, aligning with the full-year sales growth target of 9% yoy [1][3] - **2Q25 Results**: - Total sales reached Rmb39.7 billion, up 7.3% yoy, slightly below Goldman Sachs estimates (GSe) of Rmb39.9 billion [1][11] - Net profit was Rmb18.6 billion, a 5.2% increase yoy, which was 3% lower than GSe of Rmb19.1 billion [1][11] Product Performance - **Moutai Spirits**: Revenue increased by 11% yoy to approximately Rmb32.0 billion [9] - **Series Spirits**: Revenue declined by 7% yoy to about Rmb6.7 billion, impacted by a high base from the previous year (up 43% in 2Q24) and policy effects [1][9] - **Sales Channels**: - Wholesale sales grew by 1% yoy, while direct sales surged by 17% yoy, driven by non-standard Moutai sales [1][9] - Direct sales accounted for 43% of total spirits sales in 2Q25, compared to 46% in 1Q25 and 40% in 2Q24 [1][9] Margin and Expense Analysis - **Net Profit Margin (NPM)**: Decreased to 46.8%, down 0.9 percentage points yoy [1][9] - **Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: Contracted by 0.3 percentage points to 90.5% [1][9] - **Selling Expenses**: Increased by 0.5 percentage points to 4.5% of revenue, while administrative expenses decreased slightly [1][9] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - **Customer Advances**: Dropped by 45% yoy to Rmb5.5 billion, indicating reduced prepayment demand due to anti-extravagance policies [1][9] - **Note Receivables**: Increased significantly to Rmb2.8 billion from Rmb332 million a year ago, suggesting more support to the distribution channel [1][9] Price Trends and Market Outlook - **Wholesale Price Trend**: Original case Feitian Moutai's wholesale prices fell to around Rmb1,900 in late July but have shown slight recovery recently [1][9] - **Future Expectations**: Anticipated shipment increases for the Mid-Autumn Festival may lead to short-term volatility, but the company is expected to manage channel health effectively [1][9] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - **Earnings Revision**: Adjusted 2025-27E sales estimates down by 1-2% due to weaker Series spirits sales and margins [8][13] - **Target Price**: Updated target price is Rmb1,742, reflecting a 23.4x 2026E P/E [14][16] - **Current Valuation**: Trading at 19x/18x 2025E/26E P/E with a 2025E dividend yield of 3.8% [1][16] Risks and Considerations - **Key Risks**: Potential regulatory changes, environmental concerns, slower macroeconomic recovery, capacity constraints, and volatility in US interest rates [15] Conclusion - **Investment Recommendation**: Maintain Buy rating based on resilient sales growth and strategic management of market challenges [1][16]