Kweichow Moutai (600519.SS) 2Q25 Results Review Company Overview - **Company**: Kweichow Moutai - **Ticker**: 600519.SS - **Industry**: Consumer Staples (Alcoholic Beverages) Key Financial Results - **1H25 Results**: Sales increased by 9.1% year-over-year (yoy) to Rmb89.4 billion, and net profit (NP) rose by 8.9% yoy to Rmb45.4 billion, aligning with the full-year sales growth target of 9% yoy [1][3] - **2Q25 Results**: - Total sales reached Rmb39.7 billion, up 7.3% yoy, slightly below Goldman Sachs estimates (GSe) of Rmb39.9 billion [1][11] - Net profit was Rmb18.6 billion, a 5.2% increase yoy, which was 3% lower than GSe of Rmb19.1 billion [1][11] Product Performance - **Moutai Spirits**: Revenue increased by 11% yoy to approximately Rmb32.0 billion [9] - **Series Spirits**: Revenue declined by 7% yoy to about Rmb6.7 billion, impacted by a high base from the previous year (up 43% in 2Q24) and policy effects [1][9] - **Sales Channels**: - Wholesale sales grew by 1% yoy, while direct sales surged by 17% yoy, driven by non-standard Moutai sales [1][9] - Direct sales accounted for 43% of total spirits sales in 2Q25, compared to 46% in 1Q25 and 40% in 2Q24 [1][9] Margin and Expense Analysis - **Net Profit Margin (NPM)**: Decreased to 46.8%, down 0.9 percentage points yoy [1][9] - **Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: Contracted by 0.3 percentage points to 90.5% [1][9] - **Selling Expenses**: Increased by 0.5 percentage points to 4.5% of revenue, while administrative expenses decreased slightly [1][9] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - **Customer Advances**: Dropped by 45% yoy to Rmb5.5 billion, indicating reduced prepayment demand due to anti-extravagance policies [1][9] - **Note Receivables**: Increased significantly to Rmb2.8 billion from Rmb332 million a year ago, suggesting more support to the distribution channel [1][9] Price Trends and Market Outlook - **Wholesale Price Trend**: Original case Feitian Moutai's wholesale prices fell to around Rmb1,900 in late July but have shown slight recovery recently [1][9] - **Future Expectations**: Anticipated shipment increases for the Mid-Autumn Festival may lead to short-term volatility, but the company is expected to manage channel health effectively [1][9] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - **Earnings Revision**: Adjusted 2025-27E sales estimates down by 1-2% due to weaker Series spirits sales and margins [8][13] - **Target Price**: Updated target price is Rmb1,742, reflecting a 23.4x 2026E P/E [14][16] - **Current Valuation**: Trading at 19x/18x 2025E/26E P/E with a 2025E dividend yield of 3.8% [1][16] Risks and Considerations - **Key Risks**: Potential regulatory changes, environmental concerns, slower macroeconomic recovery, capacity constraints, and volatility in US interest rates [15] Conclusion - **Investment Recommendation**: Maintain Buy rating based on resilient sales growth and strategic management of market challenges [1][16]