Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - AvalonBay Communities reported a revenue growth of 2.1% for 2025, with a turnover rate of 41%, the lowest in the company's history [4][5] - The company raised $2.4 billion of capital at an initial cost of 5% during 2025, positioning itself for continued investment in 2026 [6][7] - The quarterly dividend was increased to $1.78 per share, reflecting a conservative payout ratio in the industry [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects modest revenue growth of 1.4% for 2026, driven primarily by an increase in lease rates and a better mix of jobs [8][13] - Development earnings are projected to increase significantly as projects lease up during 2026, despite funding costs from previous developments [9][25] - The company started $1.65 billion in projects in 2025 with a projected initial stabilized yield of 6.2% [5][27] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue growth in New York and New Jersey is expected to be around 2%, driven by contributions from New York City and Westchester [14] - The Mid-Atlantic region is projected to see just under 1% revenue growth due to job losses in the back half of 2025 [16] - Northern California is expected to produce mid-3% revenue growth, supported by stable occupancy and lease rate growth [18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - AvalonBay aims to utilize its scale and investments in technology to drive incremental growth from its existing portfolio [8] - The company is focusing on a conservative approach to new starts, limiting activity to $800 million in 2026, with a strong spread to underlying cap rates [9][25] - The company is well-positioned with a high-quality portfolio and one of the strongest balance sheets in the REIT sector, despite expecting modest growth in 2026 [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management anticipates a job growth environment slightly stronger than 2025, with 750,000 net new jobs forecasted for 2026 [10] - Demand for apartments is expected to be supported by favorable rent-to-income ratios and the relative attractiveness of renting versus homeownership [11] - The supply outlook indicates only 80 basis points of stock this year in established regions, which is expected to serve as a tailwind for the company [11] Other Important Information - The company expects same-store operating expense growth of 3.8% in 2026, driven by the phase-out of property tax abatement programs and other factors [20] - Legislative actions in Colorado and California are impacting the ability to charge certain fees, which is expected to drag on other rental revenue [80] Q&A Session Summary Question: Renewal rates and expectations - Management indicated that renewal offers for February and March were in the 4%-4.5% range, but actual settlements are expected to be lower, typically around 100-125 basis points of dilution [32][33] Question: Guidance lessons from 2025 - The company emphasized a detailed process for setting guidance, considering both upside and downside scenarios, with confidence in development earnings being more concrete [44][46] Question: Development starts and market conditions - Management noted that the reduction in development starts was due to both a lack of suitable deals and a conscious decision to be cautious in a choppy environment [50][53] Question: Impact of legislative activity on revenue - Management highlighted that new legislation in Colorado and California is affecting revenue, with ongoing monitoring of potential political initiatives [80][81]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported core FFO for Q1 2025 of $2.20 per diluted share, which was $0.04 above the midpoint of guidance [21] - Same store revenue growth for the quarter was 0.1%, with net delinquency representing just 0.3% of billed rents [13][21] - Average effective rent per unit decreased by $9 compared to Q1 2024, while occupancy increased by 30 basis points year-over-year to 95.6% [5][13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Blended lease pricing for Q1 2025 was negative 0.5%, showing a 160 basis point improvement sequentially from Q4 2024 [13] - Renewal rates grew by 4.5% on a lease-over-lease basis, a 30 basis point increase from the previous quarter [13] - The lease-up portfolio had a combined occupancy of 71.6%, with one property reaching stabilization [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Virginia markets, including Richmond and Northern Virginia, outperformed the portfolio average, while Austin, Phoenix, and Nashville continued to struggle with supply pressures [14][15] - The company noted strong demand trends with record absorption levels in its markets, indicating a favorable environment for recovery as supply declines [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on high-growth markets and plans to start three to four new developments in 2025, with a suburban project in Charleston, SC, set to begin construction in Q2 [8][9] - Investments in technology initiatives and property-wide WiFi are expected to enhance operational efficiencies and support future earnings growth [8][17] - The company aims to recycle its portfolio by selling underperforming assets, as evidenced by the recent exit from Columbia, SC [9][62] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the recovery cycle and the ability of their diversified portfolio to absorb new supply [10][66] - The company remains cautious about macroeconomic uncertainties but believes its operational efficiencies and market positioning will allow it to capitalize on growth opportunities [5][66] - Management noted that migration trends and single-family home affordability challenges are expected to support strong renewal performance [19][68] Other Important Information - The company has a development pipeline valued at $1.5 billion, with a comfortable funding level of $1 billion to $1.2 billion expected for the year [8][9] - The balance sheet remains strong, with $1 billion in cash and borrowing capacity, and 94% of outstanding debt fixed at an average rate of 3.8% [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Visibility on new lease spreads for late May or early June - Management indicated they have good visibility on new lease rates, with a focus on pre-leasing efforts providing additional clarity [25][26] Question: Confidence in inflection in rent growth - Management noted a steady acceleration in new lease rates, expecting continued improvement into Q2 [29] Question: Development lease-up expectations and supply impact - Management expressed confidence in lease-up performance, with some properties experiencing slower leasing but outperforming on rent expectations [33][34] Question: Changes in acquisition volumes and pricing expectations - Management observed a reduction in deal volume but consistent pricing, with sub-five percent cap rates prevailing [97][98] Question: Impact of immigration policy on demand trends - Management reported no significant impact from immigration policy changes on operations or construction at this time [86] Question: Cadence of comps throughout the year - Management expects easier comps in Q4, with some benefits from seasonality in Q2 and Q3 [100]