NBC News chief data analyst Steve Cornaki joins me now from the big board. And Steve, take us through this poll and and how is it concerning. In what ways do you see this being a factor ahead of next year's midterm elections. >> Yeah, Kelly, ahead of next year's midterms and certainly in the wake of those humbling elections in November, the off-year elections for Republicans in Virginia and New Jersey, we see Trump's approval rating in this poll at 42%.Now, back in the spring, start of his second term, uh, ...

Start with the Democrats latest test to prove their electoral strength ahead of the 2026 midterms. After multiple wins in races across the country earlier this month, Democrats are hoping to ride that momentum into Tennessee's special election in its seventh congressional district on Tuesday, where the contest appears surprisingly close between Democrat Afton Bane and Republican Matt Van Eps. A new Emerson College poll shows Bane trails Vanaps by two percentage points, which is within the margin of error. P ...

Let's go to Steve Cornaki now for uh to an opportunity or to kind of tie everything together. Steve, it's one thing for us to hear from voters on the ground, but then we have to look at the data to see if one or two anecdotal accounts of how voters are feeling actually is applying to everyone. What are the polls telling us right now about where things stand.>> Yeah, Ryan, we're looking at numbers in the polls that have moved this fall and really moved, I think, starting with the government shutdown in a way ...

Are there any bell weathers that might indicate what could happen in the midterms next year. >> Yeah, I I think there's some there's a very ominous sign here for Republicans and it's this. Let me call this up.This is from our exit poll last night and we just asked about Trump's job approval rating in the four places with elections. And what you need to know is this 39% approval for Trump in Virginia. Pretty close to the to what winsome Earl Sears the Republican got.42% that's basically what Chidarelli got. ...

Election Analysis - Exit polls are providing initial insights into voter behavior in key states and New York City [1] - The "Trump factor" is being analyzed to determine its influence on election results in blue states and New York City [2] Presidential Approval Ratings - President Trump's job approval rating is 41% in Virginia, 43% in New Jersey, 29% in New York City, and 36% in California [3] - Trump's approval ratings in Virginia and New Jersey are slightly below his vote share in those states in the previous election [4] Impact of Trump on Voting Decisions - In New Jersey, 38% of voters said opposing Trump was the main reason for their vote in the governor's race [5] - 13% of voters in New Jersey said supporting Trump was the main reason for their vote [6] - 47% of voters in New Jersey indicated that Trump was not a factor in their vote [6] - One campaign's strategy is to tie a candidate to Trump, hoping to sway voters in areas where Trump performed poorly [6]