Any poll that claims to show results constituency by constituency should be treated with scepticism https://t.co/MttrTIj01B ...

Let's go to Steve Cornaki now for uh to an opportunity or to kind of tie everything together. Steve, it's one thing for us to hear from voters on the ground, but then we have to look at the data to see if one or two anecdotal accounts of how voters are feeling actually is applying to everyone. What are the polls telling us right now about where things stand.>> Yeah, Ryan, we're looking at numbers in the polls that have moved this fall and really moved, I think, starting with the government shutdown in a way ...

Polls have consistently shown that the demographic groups with whom Donald Trump gained the most ground in 2024, namely young and Latino voters, have also been the quickest to sour on him https://t.co/xObhjLDc4K ...

Let's bring back in Molly Jong Fast and Cornell Belchure. So Molly, some were probably left speechless seeing how warm the two leaders were with each other. Were they just trying to feel things out here, trying to make the best of a tense situation, or can this last.So again, it's Trump and remember, historically, Trump has always pared the thing the last person said to him. So it's hard to make a bet on Trump staying consistent. That said, I do have this theory which is Trump is on his heels from a week th ...

Republican candidates weren’t the only ones who fell short in Tuesday’s elections. Pollsters had a bad night, too. https://t.co/df6QiB00S3 ...

Core Insights - The prediction market industry is rapidly growing, allowing individuals to trade based on their opinions about future events, with Kalshi being a notable player valued at $5 billion [2][3] - Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket provide a consensus opinion by enabling participants to stake money on their predictions, which can be more informative than traditional polling methods [4][5][7] - While prediction markets do not replace polls, they serve as a complementary tool that processes polling information and offers insights based on collective market behavior [10][24] Company Insights - Kalshi is the first regulated events contract exchange, currently raising funds at a valuation of $5 billion, while its competitor Polymarket is being sought for acquisition at around $10 billion by the Intercontinental Exchange [2] - The co-founder of Kalshi emphasizes the need for a direct exchange for trading opinions on future events, highlighting the innovative approach of the company [3] Industry Insights - Prediction markets are seen as valuable tools for gauging public sentiment and forecasting outcomes in various sectors, including politics and foreign policy [7][8] - The effectiveness of prediction markets is enhanced by their reliance on polling data, which provides a foundation for market predictions [23] - The rise of artificial intelligence is influencing polling methodologies, potentially improving the accuracy and relevance of data collected [18][20]

Do prediction markets like poly markets potentially replace polls. I mean, polls have come under some siege. It's gotten harder and harder to do them.And by the way, are they more susceptible of being gamed. >> David, I don't think they replace polls anymore than the stock market replaces earnings forecasts. So, no, I don't think that prediction markets are a substitute for polls.Scott Rasmmanson is a traditional pollster and editor at large of ballot pedia. And as challenging as the business of polling has ...