Core Insights - Tesla's shares have decreased by 20% this year, contrasting with a 5% increase in the S&P 500, primarily due to poor financial results and market share losses [1][5] - CEO Elon Musk's behavior has negatively impacted the brand's reputation, alienating both political parties [2][3] Financial Performance - Tesla's deliveries have declined in three of the last five quarters, with automotive revenue falling by 20% and non-GAAP net income dropping by 40% in Q1 2025 [5][6] - Consensus earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been reduced by 25% and 16%, respectively, in the last three months, leading to a projected annual earnings growth of only 14% through 2026 [8] Market Share Dynamics - Tesla's U.S. market share has decreased by 9 percentage points, European market share by 8 percentage points, and Chinese market share by 3 percentage points [6] - Despite a 38% increase in global electric car sales through April, Tesla is losing ground in the market [7] Autonomous Ride-Sharing Potential - Tesla has launched a limited autonomous ride-sharing service, with initial operations in Austin, Texas [9] - Analysts estimate significant future revenue potential from robotaxi services, with projections of $115 billion to $700 billion in revenue by 2040, translating to potential profits of $50 billion to $120 billion [11] Strategic Outlook - The shift from low-margin electric car manufacturing to high-margin robotaxi services could enhance Tesla's profitability [12] - Elon Musk envisions Tesla as potentially the most valuable company globally as it monetizes its full self-driving platform and robotics products [12]

Apple - The investment thesis for Apple is based on its leadership in smartphone sales and significant pricing power, with the average iPhone sold for three times more than the average Samsung smartphone last year [3] - Apple offers a wide range of services, including the App Store, Apple Care, iCloud, and subscription products like Apple TV+ and Apple Music, but has not capitalized on the anticipated AI service wave following the popularity of generative AI [4][5] - Financial results for the first quarter of fiscal 2025 showed total revenue increased by 4% to $124 billion, with services sales up 14% and iPhone sales down 1%, while GAAP earnings rose 10% to $2.40 per diluted share, primarily due to stock buybacks [7] - Wall Street expects Apple's earnings to grow by 8% over the next four quarters, leading to a current valuation of 31 times earnings, which is considered expensive [8] Tesla - Tesla experienced its first annual decline in deliveries last year, with revenue rising 2% to $25.7 billion in the fourth quarter, but operating margin contracted by 2 points [9] - Market share losses have accelerated in 2025, with significant declines in sales in Europe and a 4 percentage point loss in market share in China during the first two months of the year [10][11] - CEO Elon Musk announced plans to launch a more affordable model in the first half of 2025 and autonomous ride-sharing in several U.S. cities by the end of the year, which could potentially boost demand [11][12] - Analysts have revised Tesla's earnings growth estimate down to 22% annually through 2026, compared to 29% three months ago, with the current valuation at 108 times earnings, which is viewed as expensive [12]