Chicago Fed President Goulsby on squawkbox this morning defending the validity of BLS data and the shortcomings of relying just on private sector sources. Joining us here at Post9 this morning to talk more about it, Goldman Sachs chief economist John Hotsi is who normally joins us on jobs Friday. A little bit different today.It's a jobs Friday except they're not jobs. Yes. Do you do you feel like you're flying blind or no.He seems to think that um BLS is still the gold standard. Oh, for sure. It's a signifi ...

Government Shutdown Probability & Duration - The analyst estimates a 70% probability of a government shutdown, lower than the 90% perceived by Hill staff [1][2] - The duration of the shutdown is the key question, impacting the market and economic data releases [4] - The analyst anticipates a short-lived shutdown [8] Political Dynamics & Key Players - The meeting with the president is considered unproductive due to too many participants; focus should be on Leader Thun and Leader Schumer [4] - Senator Thun is crucial for Senate negotiations, needing 10-20 Democratic votes to pass a resolution [6][7] - Leader Johnson has the votes to pass a short-term continuing resolution in the House [6] Impact on Economic Data & Market Reaction - The release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment data on Friday is critical for investors [8] - The White House has the functional ability to release the BLS data, making it a political choice [12] - Concerns exist regarding data publication integrity, given the BLS commissioner's dismissal and perceived executive influence [14] - The bond market is heavily focused on the jobs data for insights into interest rates [15]

From @WSJopinion: E.J. Antoni will have to take off his MAGA hat if he wants to ensure that the public and markets can trust BLS data https://t.co/Z1ZXiWovmy ...

Data Accuracy and Political Influence - Concerns arise over potential political manipulation of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data, particularly the jobs numbers and Consumer Price Index (CPI), due to the appointment of a nominee perceived as politically aligned [1][5][6] - The industry emphasizes the importance of data accuracy and nonpartisanship in BLS reporting, as businesses, governments, and politicians rely on this data for decision-making and evaluation [2][8][9] - The industry expresses worry that redefining data or temporarily cancelling reports could mask economic weaknesses and hinder effective monetary and fiscal policy responses [14] Potential Consequences of Data Manipulation - The industry highlights that unreliable data could negatively impact business decisions related to production, location, and understanding consumer behavior [12][13] - Concerns exist that skipping or blending data releases, especially around midterm elections, could lead to misleading economic perceptions [16][18] - The industry notes that disruptions to long-term data series undermine their usefulness for understanding economic trends [15] Calls for Action and Alternative Solutions - The industry suggests that business leaders should publicly advocate for the protection of accurate and credible data [11] - The industry mentions the development of alternative private sector data sets to provide checks and balances on official numbers [15] - The industry emphasizes the need to support statisticians who have been working to protect data series [15]