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Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY): A Bull Case Theory
Yahoo Finance· 2025-10-22 19:07
Core Thesis - Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) is viewed positively due to its strategic divestiture of OXYChem and focus on balance sheet deleveraging, positioning the company for long-term growth and shareholder returns [1][5][6] Financial Performance - OXYChem was sold to Berkshire Hathaway for $9.7 billion in cash, resulting in approximately $8 billion after taxes, while retaining around $2 billion in environmental liabilities [2] - Historically, OXYChem generated about $550 million in free cash flow (FCF) annually, with potential upside from the Battleground plant expansion expected to add $325 million in EBITDA by 2026 [2] - Adjusted for capital expenditures and low chemical pricing, OXYChem's 2026 FCF is projected to be around $460–500 million, indicating a 7–10% FCF-to-sale-price ratio [3] Strategic Moves - The divestiture aligns with OXY's asset optimization strategy, swapping OXYChem for CrownRock (CR), acquired for $12.4 billion in 2024, which produces approximately 170,000 boepd and generates roughly $1 billion in FCF at $70/WTI [4] - CR offers an 8% FCF return comparable to OXYChem in a down-cycle chemical market and provides critical Midland Basin acreage for enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and operational synergies [4] Market Reaction - The market initially reacted negatively to the divestiture due to messaging gaps and perceived costs, but OXY's strategic actions are expected to de-risk the balance sheet and accelerate shareholder returns [5] - Future guidance in the upcoming quarterly report is anticipated to clarify the company's strategic positioning and address market skepticism [5] Valuation and Outlook - OXY's trailing and forward P/E ratios are 26.02 and 16.18 respectively, indicating an attractive valuation amid low U.S. oil supply and potential operational leverage [1] - The stock has appreciated approximately 14% since previous bullish coverage, benefiting from energy market tailwinds [6]