Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin's price trajectory is evolving, with predictions suggesting it could reach $250,000 by the end of 2026, driven by institutional demand and macroeconomic factors rather than traditional halving cycles [2][6][8]. Group 1: Price Predictions and Market Dynamics - Tom Lee's forecast includes a potential 35% rally within the first 30 days of the year, aiming to surpass Bitcoin's all-time high of $126,000 [3]. - Lee's bullish scenario anticipates Bitcoin breaking its four-year cycle, driven by sustained ETF inflows and corporate treasury demand, potentially reaching $200,000 to $250,000 [16]. - The base case scenario projects Bitcoin prices between $100,000 and $170,000, reflecting a maturing asset with reduced volatility [17]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Bitcoin's Future - The recent leverage reset, following the October 2025 crash that liquidated $19 billion in positions, is seen as a necessary step for sustainable growth [11]. - Government support, particularly from the Trump administration and the anticipated passage of the CLARITY Act, is expected to unlock institutional capital [12]. - The correlation between Bitcoin and gold is strengthening, with stablecoin issuers becoming significant buyers of gold, positioning Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat currency debasement [13]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Institutional Involvement - Lee believes the traditional halving cycle is losing its influence as institutional capital flows through ETFs and corporate treasuries accumulate [7]. - The end of quantitative tightening and a pivot towards rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in early 2026 could catalyze rallies across risk assets, benefiting Bitcoin [14]. - A bearish scenario suggests Bitcoin could fall to between $65,000 and $90,000 if institutional rebalancing leads to aggressive selling [18].

💡 INSIGHT: Grayscale says Bitcoin may be breaking away from its traditional 4-year cycle.With institutions now driving the market, is retail becoming less influential in shaping $BTC’s macro trends? https://t.co/qj00HCrHsv ...

Core Insights - JPMorgan is shifting from traditional spot ETFs to complex Bitcoin-linked derivatives, indicating a new trading approach for Bitcoin amid the upcoming halving cycle [1] - The newly filed structured note linked to BlackRock's IBIT Bitcoin ETF promises significant returns but carries the risk of total principal loss [2][3] Summary by Sections Structured Note Details - The proposed note offers 16% fixed returns if IBIT reaches JPMorgan's price target by the end of 2026 and over 50% returns if the target is met by 2028 [3][6] - A critical risk is that if the ETF drops more than 30% at any point before maturity, investors could lose their entire principal [3][4] Market Dynamics - The transition from spot ETFs to derivatives reflects a broader trend among Wall Street institutions, focusing on contracts that depend on ETF performance rather than direct ownership of Bitcoin [4] - The structured note is categorized as high-yield/high-volatility, typically reserved for sophisticated clients, utilizing mechanisms like barriers and auto-call triggers [5] Risk and Return Mechanics - The note features a 1.5x upside, resembling a leveraged derivative payoff, with a 30% downside barrier that mirrors derivative-style risk protection [7]

🚨 LATEST: Bitwise advisor Jeff Park argues Bitcoin's 4-year halving cycle is over, now replaced by a 2-year cycle driven by institutional fund manager economics and ETF flows. https://t.co/rff0twjpE4 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin (BTC) is projected to capture half of gold's market capitalization, potentially reaching an equivalent value of $644,000 per BTC after the next halving cycle in April 2028, driven by factors such as persistent inflation and a devaluation of the dollar [1][5][3]. Market Trends - Both Bitcoin and gold are experiencing significant price increases, with Bitcoin recently surpassing $126,000 and holding strong at $123,611 despite a modest correction [5][6]. - The optimism in the market suggests that Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by the end of the year, with some forecasts even predicting a target of $200,000 [7]. Generational Shift - Younger generations, particularly in emerging markets, are increasingly favoring Bitcoin over gold as a store of value, indicating a potential shift in market share from gold to Bitcoin [4]. Price Performance Analysis - The current price movement of Bitcoin is critical, with a need to break out of the $120,000-$125,000 range to confirm the sustainability of the rally. A healthy correction could occur, with a potential drop to around $109,000 being seen as a positive sign for future growth [8].

RT Vivek Sen (@Vivek4real_)TOM LEE SAID THE #BITCOIN 4 YEAR CYCLE IS NOW DEAD AND IT'S EASILY GOING TO $1,000,000IT’S COMING!!! https://t.co/f1ILDOXzb4 ...

FYI: I still believe that bitcoin average price will be ~$0.5m this halving cycle (2024-2028).Note that S2F prediction is very rough (obviously because the prediction is made only using scarcity/S2F-ratio) with a $0.25m-$1m range (so $0.3m or $0.6m average would also be fine).PlanB (@100trillionUSD):Average bitcoin price 2020-2024 halving cycle was $34k. A bit below 2019 S2F prediction of $55k, but still in normal range and not bad given BTC<$4k when prediction was made. Refit of S2F with new data (below) s ...