One of Canada’s most influential business groups says it supports Prime Minister Mark Carney’s plan to boost investment, but wants to see a credible plan for getting budget deficits under control https://t.co/AuwIaAhBZN ...

Borrowing costs are up, hitting levels not seen in decades and particularly on long-term bonds. This is creating a headache for investors and for governments around the globe. From mortgages to car loans, the cost of our borrowing is often based on longdated bonds.It's also what governments pay for their long-term borrowing. Now we're seeing investors demand extra compensation for holding those bonds with sticky inflation and wide budget deficits front of mind. Structural forces like demographics and geopol ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **US Treasury market** and broader **global macroeconomic strategies**. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **US Treasury Yields and Dollar Index**: - 10-year US Treasury yields are over 50 basis points lower, and the DXY dollar index is over 10% weaker from year-to-date highs, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [1][2][3] - Anticipation of Fed rate cuts is expected to push both Treasury yields and the USD to new lows in the fall [1][2] 2. **Market Reactions to Fed Policies**: - Chair Powell's dovish tone at the Jackson Hole Symposium has led to a positive adjustment in Treasury yields, with expectations for further cuts influencing market behavior [4][61] - The market-implied trough effective fed funds rate has fallen below 3.00%, suggesting a potential for further declines [14][64] 3. **Deficit Reduction Projections**: - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects a $4.0 trillion reduction in deficits over the next decade due to tariff implementations, a significant increase from previous estimates [27][33] - This reduction is expected to impact the federal borrowing needs and interest outlays positively [33][34] 4. **Investment Strategies**: - Recommendations include staying long on US Treasury duration, particularly 5-year notes, and engaging in yield curve steepeners [12][25][39] - Specific trade ideas include maintaining long positions in various Treasury futures and swaps, with targets set for yield adjustments [39][60] 5. **Currency Strategies**: - Continued recommendations for short USD positions, with expectations for EUR and JPY to gain against the USD due to shifting yield differentials [40][41] - The USD-negative risk premium is anticipated to re-expand, further supporting the bearish outlook on the dollar [48][49] 6. **Global Economic Context**: - The ECB's stance on rate cuts has shifted, with expectations for a more resilient euro area economy leading to revised forecasts for German yields [42][64] - The market is adjusting to a potential lower terminal rate for the Fed, which could influence global currency dynamics [87][90] Other Important Insights - **Investor Positioning**: - Recent data indicates that investors are no longer short on USD, suggesting a shift in market sentiment that could lead to further declines in the dollar [60][61] - The negative policy premium affecting the USD has become less pronounced, reflecting improved investor perceptions regarding policy uncertainty [53][59] - **Market Dynamics**: - The upcoming index extensions related to US Treasury refunding could flatten the Treasury curve, presenting tactical risks to suggested steepeners [22][65] - The historical performance of US Treasuries in August shows a tendency for positive returns, which may influence investor strategies [80][81] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, focusing on the US Treasury market, macroeconomic strategies, and investment recommendations.

Tax Policy Changes - Extension of 2017 tax cuts, initially set to expire at the end of 2025 [1][2] - Child tax credit increased to $2,200 and indexed to inflation [2] - Estate tax exemption increased to $15 million per person [2] - Elimination of tax credits for electric vehicles and clean energy purchases after September 30th [3] - State and local tax deduction capped at $10,000, with a temporary increase to $40,000 for certain income levels [3][4] - Potential $25,000 deduction for tipped workers, but payroll taxes still apply [4] - Deduction for seniors of $6,000 per person for those ages 65 and up [6] Government Spending and Budget Impact - Increased funding for agencies like ICE, Customs and Border Protection, Homeland Security, the Defense Department, and Missile Defense [7] - Medicaid work requirements implemented, projected to save $326 billion through 2034 [8][9] - Changes to premium tax credits under the Affordable Care Act, potentially leading to 11 million fewer people with health insurance by 2034 [10] - Creation of a $50 billion rural healthcare fund to address changes in healthcare access [11] - Projected increase in the deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next 10 years (through 2034) [13] Economic Impact and Political Considerations - Republicans argue that economic growth from tax cuts and deregulation will offset the deficit increase [15] - Economists express concerns about the drag of budget deficits on the economy, potentially leading to higher interest rates and increased debt [15] - Potential for Democrats to delay or change tax cuts if they win the House majority [12]

Dollar Weakness Factors - The US debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to increase from 100% to potentially 125% or higher in the next decade, leading to increased Treasury issuance [2] - Higher borrowing costs, resulting from increased Treasury issuance, could slow down the US economy, making it less attractive for foreign capital and reducing dollar demand [3] - Current dollar weakness is primarily due to reallocation out of US assets by investors, differing from historical instances driven by Fed rate cuts [7] Impact of a Weaker Dollar - A weaker dollar can benefit multinational corporations and the stock market in the near term, but slower growth poses a long-term negative impact [4] - While historically a weaker dollar has correlated with faster earnings per share growth, the current situation is different due to the cause of the dollar's depreciation [6][7] - Excessive currency strengthening can create concerns for entities like the European Central Bank if the Euro strengthens to 120% [10] Global Investment Implications - Emerging markets may benefit from a weaker dollar, as investors potentially reduce capital allocation to the US [9] - Some countries, like Taiwan and Switzerland, are intervening to manage their currency strength, highlighting potential challenges [11] - Continued and rapid dollar weakness could lead to stresses in currency markets and potentially spill over to other asset classes, raising concerns about global instability [12]

>> LIVE FROM WASHINGTON, D.C., THIS IS "BALANCE OF POWER" WITH JOE MATHIEU AND KAILEY LEINZ. JOE: IT'S TIME FOR THE VOTE-A-RAMA ON PRESIDENT TRUMP'S BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL. WELCOME TO THE EARLY EDITION OF "BALANCE OF POWER" ON BLOOMBERG TV AND RADIO WITHIN HOURS-LONG AMENDMENT SESSION GETTING UNDERWAY IN THE UNITED STATES SENATE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A FULL FLOOR VOTE BY THE TIME THIS IS DONE. ALONGSIDE KAILEY LEINZ, I'M JOE MATHIEU IN WASHINGTON. WE THANK YOU FOR JOINING US ON "BALANCE OF POWER. " IT LOOKS LIKE ...