Consumers expecting to spend about 10% less this year on holiday gifts for an average of nearly $1,600 as they prepare for higher prices according to the latest Deote holiday retail survey. Our next guest warns that consumers are strapped. We could see a January hangover.Joining us is Lockx Ganapathy of Unicus Research. She's the founder and CEO of the short investment research firm. She's also worked closely with Steve Eisman who is a friend of Fast Money of course.Locks, great to have you back. Good to se ...

Core Insights - The upcoming holiday season is expected to boost retail sales significantly, contributing to major retailers' revenues [1] - Retail sales during November and December are projected to increase by 3.7% to 4.2%, reaching approximately $1.01 trillion to $1.02 trillion, marking the first time U.S. holiday sales are expected to exceed $1 trillion [2] - Economic concerns, including a federal government shutdown, may dampen sales growth, affecting consumer demand [3] Retail Sales Projections - Total holiday spending is anticipated to reach between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion, with a year-over-year increase of 3.7% to 4.2% [2] - Last year's holiday sales were $976.1 billion, reflecting a 4.3% increase from the previous year [2] Economic Impact - The federal government shutdown is identified as a key headwind, potentially leading to a loss of private-sector income and impacting consumer spending patterns [3] - While some economic impacts are expected to be temporary, they may still influence consumer behavior during the holiday season [3] Government Funding Bill - The Senate passed a bill to fund the federal government through January, ending the longest shutdown in U.S. history, with a vote of 60-40 [4] - The bill will proceed to the House of Representatives for consideration before reaching the President for signature [5] Consumer Behavior Trends - Consumers are showing caution but remain fundamentally strong, with lower-income consumers prioritizing essential goods over non-essentials [6] - This trend may negatively impact sectors related to services, such as recreation and dining, while benefiting retail and discretionary ETFs [6] Online Shopping Insights - U.S. online sales are projected to reach $253.4 billion this holiday season, reflecting a 5.3% year-over-year growth [7] - Cyber Week is expected to account for 17.2% of overall spending, totaling $43.7 billion, with a 6.3% increase from the previous year [8] Investment Opportunities - The online shopping trend is likely to benefit ETFs focused on online retail, such as ProShares Online Retail ETF (ONLN) [8] - The "Buy Now Pay Later" trend is expected to drive an additional $2 billion in online spending, favoring iShares FinTech Active ETF (BPAY) [8] - The use of generative AI for shopping is anticipated to create investment opportunities in Roundhill Generative AI & Technology ETF (CHAT) [9]

Consumer Behavior & Market Trends - Affirm's consumer base remains healthy, actively shopping, paying bills, and energized by upcoming holidays [2] - The perception of the American consumer's demise is exaggerated, with different technology sectors presenting varying narratives [3] - Consumers are increasingly turning to Affirm, evidenced by strong demand for zero-day promotions [5] - It's inaccurate to generalize about the Affirm consumer due to diverse segments with varying financial priorities [6] - Consumers using 0% promotions prioritize saving money, while those favoring longer repayment terms prioritize cash flow [7] Business Strategy & Partnerships - Affirm's brand promise of transparency and control resonates with users, especially amidst external pressures [4] - Affirm's partnership model with companies like Amazon, Shopify, Apple, and Costco is effective [8] - Affirm is expanding into services, recognizing that consumers spend on services beyond just physical goods [9][10] - The company is focused on executing its current strategy and achieving growth, with a 42% growth rate [15] - While not actively pursuing M&A, the possibility is not ruled out, as the company is performing well [11] Product & Payment Strategy - Affirm aims to be available across various payment channels, both digital and physical [14] - The company is focused on executing its current strategy and achieving growth, with a 42% growth rate [15]

Welcome back. A firm shares this morning rising on the back of an earnings beat. Although the stock has given up some of the initial jump, the buy now pay later company reporting a record 20 41 million transactions last quarter.More than 24 million active consumers added another 500,000 users to its debit card. And while the stock is up today, it's still down more than 20% from the 52- week high in September. Joining us first on CNBC this morning is the firm's founder and CEO, Max Lechin.Max, happy Friday. ...

[music] Welcome back to fast money earnings alert on a firm shares of the buy now pay later uh company spiking 11% after hours the company delivering earnings and revenues that exceeded Wall Street estimates the conference call is underway CNBC's Mackenzie Sagalas got the latest Mac. >> Hey Mel so firm shares are rallying after hours as transaction volume jumped 42% in the quarter. CEO Max Lechin opened the earnings call though by pointing to their new 5-year deal with Amazon as a major win.Indeed, a key mo ...

Core Insights - A firm’s shares surged 11% after hours due to earnings and revenues surpassing Wall Street estimates [1] - The company reported a 42% increase in transaction volume for the quarter, indicating strong business performance [1][2] - A significant highlight was the new 5-year partnership with Amazon, which CEO Max Lechin emphasized as a major achievement [1] Financial Performance - Earnings more than doubled expectations, showcasing a strong revenue beat [3] - Transaction volume reached a new high despite limited seasonal lift, reflecting robust demand [3] - Card volume increased by 135% year-over-year, indicating effective growth strategies [3] User Engagement - Active users have now reached 2.8 million, demonstrating an expanding customer base [3] - The demand for 0% loans has become the fastest-growing product for the company, suggesting a shift in consumer preferences [2]

Core Viewpoint - The discussion centers around the performance and outlook of a firm, particularly in relation to consumer health and the impact of economic disparities on lower-end consumers [1][2][3]. Consumer Health - The firm is viewed as a barometer for consumer health, with a significant focus on the dichotomy between affluent consumers and those struggling financially [2][3]. - Despite overall consumer health appearing stable, concerns persist regarding the lower-end consumer's ability to manage financial obligations, especially in the context of "buy now, pay later" schemes [2][6][12]. Financial Performance Expectations - Analysts anticipate earnings per share (EPS) to be 11 cents, reflecting a decline from the previous quarter but an increase compared to the same period last year [7]. - Revenue projections are set to exceed $880 million, indicating a positive trend despite potential challenges [7]. Stock Performance and Market Dynamics - The firm's stock has performed well year-to-date, showing double-digit growth, comparable to the S&P 500 [4]. - The stock's status as a "meme stock" introduces volatility, with potential for significant sell-offs in the future, particularly if market momentum shifts [5][8]. Strategic Partnerships - Partnerships with major players like Amazon and Shopify are deemed critical for the firm's valuation and market position, significantly influencing its status as a meme stock [10][11]. - Any disruption in these partnerships could have severe implications for the firm's market performance, although current expectations suggest stability in these relationships [11]. Future Outlook - The firm is expected to provide insights into the state of the lower-end consumer in its upcoming results, which will be closely monitored for indications of economic health [12].

Core Insights - PayPal Holdings Inc is focusing on aligning with younger consumers who are reshaping credit usage, indicating a strategic pivot towards generational shifts in spending habits [1][2] - The company is emphasizing the "buy now, pay later" (BNPL) trend as a significant growth opportunity, potentially taking market share from traditional credit cards [2][3] - PayPal's broader strategy includes investing in its ecosystem, such as its leading wallets and global connections, prioritizing long-term growth over short-term earnings [4] Group 1 - The company is experiencing a resurgence in stock value following a positive earnings report, indicating investor confidence in its strategic direction [1] - CEO Alex Chriss highlighted three significant generational shifts, particularly the move towards BNPL among younger consumers [2] - PayPal is positioning BNPL as a key growth engine, reflecting a shift in consumer preferences towards more flexible payment options [3] Group 2 - Chriss stated that the company is well-positioned to capitalize on these generational shifts, committing to appropriate investments despite potential near-term challenges [4] - The focus on long-term adoption curves suggests a strategic emphasis on sustainable growth rather than immediate profit margins [4] - The excitement around these generational shifts positions PayPal as a leader in the evolving credit landscape [5]

Market Overview - The stock market is mixed, with the Dow down about 70 points, the S&P 500 up approximately 0.4%, and the NASDAQ up nearly 0.9% [1][4][3] - The tech sector is leading the market, particularly driven by AMD's significant AI deal [5][6] AMD and OpenAI Deal - AMD announced a multi-billion dollar deal with OpenAI, marking a significant win for AMD in the AI chip market [10][11] - The deal involves supplying MI450 GPUs for data centers, positioning AMD to better compete with Nvidia [11][12] - OpenAI will receive a 10% stake in AMD contingent on AMD meeting certain milestones [13] - The deal has the potential to generate tens of billions in revenue for AMD over the coming years, with an initial deployment expected in the second half of next year [37][36] Market Reactions - AMD shares surged by 25% following the announcement of the deal, reflecting strong investor sentiment [19] - Nvidia's stock experienced a slight decline due to the competitive implications of AMD's new partnership [12][19] - The chip index (Socks) is up 3.7%, indicating a broader bullish sentiment in the semiconductor sector [8] Broader Industry Context - The AI sector is experiencing a surge in partnerships and investments, with companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon also involved [18][12] - The overall market is seeing a shift towards tech and AI-related stocks, with healthcare and real estate sectors lagging behind [5][9][86] Future Outlook - AMD's partnership with OpenAI is seen as a critical step in building AI infrastructure, with expectations of significant future revenue from AI compute capabilities [36][55] - The AI market is projected to be a long-term growth area, with AMD's deal potentially marking the beginning of a "super cycle" in AI investments [55][56]

Group 1 - The company in focus is a buy now pay later IPO, referred to as CLA, which is viewed positively by analysts despite a crowded market [1][2] - There is a sense of skepticism in the market, with references to a zero-sum mentality where there are clear winners and losers [4][5] - The company has a significant global footprint and has made credible promises in the past, which have been fulfilled, indicating strong management [2][3] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs has initiated a buy rating for the company, and Rothschild has also upgraded its rating, suggesting positive sentiment among analysts [4] - There is a concern regarding transparency and honesty in the industry, particularly with companies like OpenAI, which raises questions about their operations [7] - The narrative around the company includes anecdotes of past skepticism being overturned by strong performance, highlighting the potential for significant growth [8]