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瑞银:全球策略-CTA的持仓与资金流动
瑞银· 2025-06-30 01:02
Investment Rating - The report indicates a bullish outlook for stocks, credit, and energy, while being neutral on bonds and bearish on the USD [6][11]. Core Insights - Geopolitical tensions and resistance levels in major indices are impacting stock momentum, but declining volatilities in Europe and Asia may stabilize positioning [2][6]. - CTAs have shifted from a very short to a moderately long position in energy commodities, indicating a significant repositioning trend [5][20]. - The USD's weak reaction to geopolitical events suggests a potential loss of its safe-haven status, which is favorable for CTAs holding short positions in the currency [4][11]. Summary by Sections Equities - The report suggests a bullish stance on most indices except for US small and mid-cap stocks, which are neutral, and Asia excluding China, which is bearish [6][11]. - Key resistance levels to watch for the S&P 500 are at 6050, with current momentum showing signs of weakening [21][22]. Bonds - CTAs are currently moderate duration buyers in bonds, with a preference for Italian and Australian bonds while remaining neutral on Korea and EU bonds, and bearish on US, UK, and Japanese bonds [11][29]. Credit - The report indicates a bullish outlook across the credit market, with CTAs maintaining a long position [11][20]. Currencies - The USD is viewed as bearish against all currencies, with a notable bullish sentiment towards emerging market currencies like the Brazilian Real and Mexican Peso [11][20]. Commodities - The focus is primarily on energy commodities, with CTAs significantly increasing their long positions, while also reducing shorts in agricultural commodities [5][11].