Financial Performance - Goldman Sachs reported adjusted EPS of $12.25 for Q3 2025, exceeding the analyst estimate of $11.00, with net revenue of $15.18 billion, surpassing the estimated $14.10 billion [2][10] - The firm's provision for credit losses was lower than expected at $339 million, compared to an estimate of $369 million [2] - Albertsons reported adjusted EPS of $0.44 for Q2 2025, outperforming the estimated $0.40, with revenue reaching $18.915 billion against an estimate of $18.886 billion [4][10] - Goldman Sachs declared a dividend of $4 per share and achieved a return on equity (ROE) of 14.2% with net income of $4.1 billion [3] Market Developments - The write-off of Credit Suisse's Additional Tier 1 (AT1) capital instruments was revoked, providing clarity and potential relief for impacted bondholders [6][10] - Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley raised their target prices for Broadcom Inc., indicating positive sentiment for the semiconductor company [8] Geopolitical Events - China imposed sanctions on South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean, escalating trade tensions and prohibiting Chinese entities from engaging with Hanwha's U.S.-linked units [5][10] - Chinese Premier Li Qiang emphasized the need for a resilient economy, urging the full utilization of policy resources and counter-cyclical adjustments to stabilize economic growth [7][10]

Core Insights - The earnings season is commencing with major banks reporting, amidst a backdrop of record U.S. indices and a government shutdown [1] - Wall Street analysts have raised earnings estimates for the first time since late 2021, projecting an 8% year-over-year earnings growth for the S&P 500, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of expansion [2] Financial Sector Outlook - Financials are expected to lead this earnings season, with major banks like JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo reporting [3] - M&A activity is showing signs of recovery, with Q3 seeing 111 M&A announcements and global M&A volumes reaching $1.26 trillion, a 40% year-over-year increase [3][4] - The IPO market is also reviving, with 150 IPO announcements in Q3, the best quarter since Q4 2021, indicating a healthier outlook for capital markets [3] Interest Income and Lending - Net Interest Income (NII) is under pressure, with modest growth expected as banks face competition for deposits [4] - Loan growth has been sluggish due to high borrowing costs, but banks are signaling optimism following better-than-expected loan growth in Q2 [5] Credit Quality and Trading - Credit quality remains stable, but any increase in delinquencies will be closely monitored, particularly in commercial real estate and among lower-to-middle income borrowers [6] - Trading is expected to be a strong performer due to market volatility driven by Fed policy changes and geopolitical uncertainty [6] Sector Performance Expectations - The technology sector is projected to outperform, with over 20% earnings growth driven by the AI sector, while consumer staples and discretionary sectors are expected to see declines in earnings [7][11] - AI corporate spending is contributing significantly to U.S. GDP growth, accounting for approximately 40% this year [10] Earnings Season Timeline - The peak of the Q3 earnings season is anticipated between October 27 and November 14, with November 7 expected to be the most active day [12] Market Sentiment - The current earnings season is characterized by a bifurcated market, with optimism in the tech sector contrasted by challenges in other sectors, setting a high bar for companies to meet [13]

Core Insights - The article discusses the expertise of an economist with a focus on financial markets and monetary policy, particularly in commodities like oil and gold, as well as stocks, bonds, and currencies [1]. Group 1 - The economist has over a decade of experience in blogging about financial markets [1]. - The research area includes macroeconomic events and their impact on financial markets [1].

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Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **Global Macro Outlook**, focusing on **US Rates**, **International Rates**, **Commodities**, **Currencies**, and **Emerging Markets** [3][4][8]. Core Insights and Arguments US Rates - Risks to the front end of the yield curve are biased lower due to labor market weakness, while concerns about Fed independence are pushing long-end rates higher [3][15]. - The first Fed cut is projected for **September 2025**, with expectations of **four sequential cuts**, bringing the funds rate target range to **3.25-3.5%** by **1Q26** [12][11]. - Anticipated **2-year Treasury yields** are expected to reach **3.50%** and **10-year yields** to **4.20%** by the end of **2025** [12][11]. International Rates - Developed market (DM) curves have steepened, particularly in the US, amid renewed focus on the long end of the curve [4][36]. - The European policy easing is losing momentum, impacting the overall yield curve dynamics [36]. Commodities - The oil market is expected to face a significant surplus, with price forecasts remaining unchanged for now due to uncertainties surrounding China's stock build [8][88]. - The European natural gas market is entering winter with historically low storage levels, leading to a bullish stance for **4Q25** and a price target of **42 EUR/MWh** [8][93]. - Copper prices are anticipated to face bearish pressure, potentially dropping to **$9,000/mt** due to unwinding demand from the US and China [8]. Currencies - The US dollar has not weakened despite recent yield curve steepening, attributed to domestic growth factors [56][58]. - Concerns regarding Fed independence and fiscal excesses are influencing the dollar's performance, with expectations of a bearish outlook [58][63]. - Fiscal policy is expected to be a key differentiator for FX, with the hypothesis that fiscal easing supports currencies in low-debt countries [63][59]. Emerging Markets - The resilience of global growth and downside risks in the US are supporting emerging market (EM) local markets [8]. - A recommendation to stay overweight (OW) in EM FX and local rates, while maintaining a market weight (MW) in EM corporates and underweight (UW) in EM sovereigns [8]. Additional Important Insights - The US Treasury is well-funded through **FY25**, but a significant funding gap is expected to emerge in **FY26**, prompting coupon auction size increases starting in **May 2026** [19][22]. - The passage of the **OBBBA** is projected to lead to a surge in T-bill issuance, with an estimated **$529 billion** of net T-bill issuance expected in the current quarter [25][23]. - Demand from foreign investors remains weak, with expectations of a shift towards more price-insensitive demand in the Treasury market [29][31]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current macroeconomic landscape and its implications for various markets.

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bullish outlook for stocks, credit, and energy, while being neutral on bonds and bearish on the USD [6][11]. Core Insights - Geopolitical tensions and resistance levels in major indices are impacting stock momentum, but declining volatilities in Europe and Asia may stabilize positioning [2][6]. - CTAs have shifted from a very short to a moderately long position in energy commodities, indicating a significant repositioning trend [5][20]. - The USD's weak reaction to geopolitical events suggests a potential loss of its safe-haven status, which is favorable for CTAs holding short positions in the currency [4][11]. Summary by Sections Equities - The report suggests a bullish stance on most indices except for US small and mid-cap stocks, which are neutral, and Asia excluding China, which is bearish [6][11]. - Key resistance levels to watch for the S&P 500 are at 6050, with current momentum showing signs of weakening [21][22]. Bonds - CTAs are currently moderate duration buyers in bonds, with a preference for Italian and Australian bonds while remaining neutral on Korea and EU bonds, and bearish on US, UK, and Japanese bonds [11][29]. Credit - The report indicates a bullish outlook across the credit market, with CTAs maintaining a long position [11][20]. Currencies - The USD is viewed as bearish against all currencies, with a notable bullish sentiment towards emerging market currencies like the Brazilian Real and Mexican Peso [11][20]. Commodities - The focus is primarily on energy commodities, with CTAs significantly increasing their long positions, while also reducing shorts in agricultural commodities [5][11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No explicit core viewpoints are presented in the given content. The report mainly offers a comprehensive overview of the performance of various global asset markets. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On June 26, 2025, yields varied widely across countries, with Brazil at 6.580% and Switzerland at 0.377%. Yields have changed over different time - frames, e.g., the US 10 - year yield decreased by 0.050 in the latest change, 0.150 in a week, 0.237 in a month, and increased by 0.019 in a year [3]. 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - As of June 26, 2025, the US 2 - year yield was 3.750. Yields have also changed over time, such as the US 2 - year yield decreasing by 0.090 in the latest change, 0.190 in a week, 0.260 in a month, and 0.920 in a year [3]. Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging - Market Currencies - On June 26, 2025, the dollar - to - Brazilian real rate was 5.489. Exchange rates have had different percentage changes over time, e.g., the dollar - to - Brazilian real rate decreased by 1.34% in the latest change and 3.53% in a month [3]. Main Economies' Stock Indices - On June 26, 2025, the S&P 500 closed at 6141.020. Indices have shown different percentage changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods, like the S&P 500 rising 0.80% in the latest change, 4.29% in a month, and 11.92% in a year [3]. Credit Bond Indices - Credit bond indices of different regions and types (investment - grade and high - yield) have had positive changes over different time - frames. For example, the US investment - grade credit bond index increased by 0.24% in the latest change, 0.91% in a week, 2.14% in a month, and 5.59% in a year [3][4] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: On June 26, 2025, the A - share index closed at 3448.45 with a - 0.22% change. Other indices like the CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 also had their respective closing prices and percentage changes [5]. - **Valuation**: PE (TTM) values for indices such as the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX were reported, along with their环比 changes. For example, the PE (TTM) of the CSI 300 was 13.17 with a 0.00% 环比 change [5]. - **Risk Premium**: Risk premium data for some indices were provided, e.g., the risk premium of the S&P 500 was - 0.41 with a 0.02% 环比 change [5]. - **Fund Flows**: The latest values and 5 - day averages of fund flows for different segments of the A - share market were given. For example, the latest A - share fund flow was - 716.56 [5]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes and 环比 changes of different indices were reported. For example, the latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 15831.51 with a - 195.89 环比 change [5]. - **Main Contract Basis and Spread**: The basis and spread data for index futures contracts (IF, IH, IC) were presented. For example, the basis of the IF contract was - 41.82 with a - 1.06% spread [5] Treasury Futures Trading Data - **Closing Prices and Changes**: Treasury futures (T00, TF00, T01, TF01) had their closing prices and percentage changes. For example, the T00 closed at 108.950 with a - 0.03% change [6]. - **Funding Rates**: R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M funding rates and their daily changes were reported. For example, R001 was 1.4399% with a - 42.00 BP daily change [6]