Currencies

Search documents
瑞银:全球策略-CTA的持仓与资金流动
瑞银· 2025-06-30 01:02
Investment Rating - The report indicates a bullish outlook for stocks, credit, and energy, while being neutral on bonds and bearish on the USD [6][11]. Core Insights - Geopolitical tensions and resistance levels in major indices are impacting stock momentum, but declining volatilities in Europe and Asia may stabilize positioning [2][6]. - CTAs have shifted from a very short to a moderately long position in energy commodities, indicating a significant repositioning trend [5][20]. - The USD's weak reaction to geopolitical events suggests a potential loss of its safe-haven status, which is favorable for CTAs holding short positions in the currency [4][11]. Summary by Sections Equities - The report suggests a bullish stance on most indices except for US small and mid-cap stocks, which are neutral, and Asia excluding China, which is bearish [6][11]. - Key resistance levels to watch for the S&P 500 are at 6050, with current momentum showing signs of weakening [21][22]. Bonds - CTAs are currently moderate duration buyers in bonds, with a preference for Italian and Australian bonds while remaining neutral on Korea and EU bonds, and bearish on US, UK, and Japanese bonds [11][29]. Credit - The report indicates a bullish outlook across the credit market, with CTAs maintaining a long position [11][20]. Currencies - The USD is viewed as bearish against all currencies, with a notable bullish sentiment towards emerging market currencies like the Brazilian Real and Mexican Peso [11][20]. Commodities - The focus is primarily on energy commodities, with CTAs significantly increasing their long positions, while also reducing shorts in agricultural commodities [5][11].
永安期货大类资产早报-20250627
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 02:30
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No explicit core viewpoints are presented in the given content. The report mainly offers a comprehensive overview of the performance of various global asset markets. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On June 26, 2025, yields varied widely across countries, with Brazil at 6.580% and Switzerland at 0.377%. Yields have changed over different time - frames, e.g., the US 10 - year yield decreased by 0.050 in the latest change, 0.150 in a week, 0.237 in a month, and increased by 0.019 in a year [3]. 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - As of June 26, 2025, the US 2 - year yield was 3.750. Yields have also changed over time, such as the US 2 - year yield decreasing by 0.090 in the latest change, 0.190 in a week, 0.260 in a month, and 0.920 in a year [3]. Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging - Market Currencies - On June 26, 2025, the dollar - to - Brazilian real rate was 5.489. Exchange rates have had different percentage changes over time, e.g., the dollar - to - Brazilian real rate decreased by 1.34% in the latest change and 3.53% in a month [3]. Main Economies' Stock Indices - On June 26, 2025, the S&P 500 closed at 6141.020. Indices have shown different percentage changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods, like the S&P 500 rising 0.80% in the latest change, 4.29% in a month, and 11.92% in a year [3]. Credit Bond Indices - Credit bond indices of different regions and types (investment - grade and high - yield) have had positive changes over different time - frames. For example, the US investment - grade credit bond index increased by 0.24% in the latest change, 0.91% in a week, 2.14% in a month, and 5.59% in a year [3][4] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: On June 26, 2025, the A - share index closed at 3448.45 with a - 0.22% change. Other indices like the CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 also had their respective closing prices and percentage changes [5]. - **Valuation**: PE (TTM) values for indices such as the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX were reported, along with their环比 changes. For example, the PE (TTM) of the CSI 300 was 13.17 with a 0.00% 环比 change [5]. - **Risk Premium**: Risk premium data for some indices were provided, e.g., the risk premium of the S&P 500 was - 0.41 with a 0.02% 环比 change [5]. - **Fund Flows**: The latest values and 5 - day averages of fund flows for different segments of the A - share market were given. For example, the latest A - share fund flow was - 716.56 [5]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes and 环比 changes of different indices were reported. For example, the latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 15831.51 with a - 195.89 环比 change [5]. - **Main Contract Basis and Spread**: The basis and spread data for index futures contracts (IF, IH, IC) were presented. For example, the basis of the IF contract was - 41.82 with a - 1.06% spread [5] Treasury Futures Trading Data - **Closing Prices and Changes**: Treasury futures (T00, TF00, T01, TF01) had their closing prices and percentage changes. For example, the T00 closed at 108.950 with a - 0.03% change [6]. - **Funding Rates**: R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M funding rates and their daily changes were reported. For example, R001 was 1.4399% with a - 42.00 BP daily change [6]