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The 'Halftime' Investment Committee debate whether the AI trade overdone
CNBC Televisionยท 2025-08-25 17:19
AI & Capex Skepticism - There's increasing skepticism around the AI trade, with questions about a potential capex bubble [1] - Concerns exist regarding potential capex overspending by hyperscalers, but the true impact won't be evident until future quarters [3] - Some believe underperformance of Meta, Microsoft, and others is due to capital repositioning, not necessarily deteriorating fundamentals [4][6] - Sam Altman's comments about a potential bubble may be motivated by a desire to deter funding for competitors, while others disagree about the existence of a bubble [10][11][12] Nvidia & Earnings - Nvidia is expected to report strong earnings and guidance, potentially exceeding expectations, despite a previous $5 billion write-off on China chips [7][8] - Some analysts suggest near-term gains for Nvidia may be limited, even with price target increases [9] - Nvidia is projected to reach $200 billion in revenue in fiscal year 2026 [7] - Nvidia's stock is considered cheap at approximately 140% times PEG ratio [9] Market Dynamics & AI Trade - The AI trade is considered to be in its early stages, with potential for expansion across various industries and sectors [17][18] - Repositioning of capital is occurring, but it's not necessarily driven by declining fundamentals [6] - The market has been marching higher for years, and people have been calling it a bubble, but it's important to adjust positions based on fundamentals and evidence [15][16]