Welcome back to Market on Close. I'm Sam Bartis on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Joining us now is Derek McFersonen, CEO of West Point Gold.Hello to you, Derek. Thanks so much for joining us today. Look, the last time we had you on, it looked like gold had sort of, I mean, gone off the radar a little bit just because we'd seen those record highs and it pulled back a bit, but we are creeping back up towards those records again.Uh, just talk us through the price action and what's driving that righ ...

Core Insights - Precious metals, particularly gold, have shown significant performance in 2025, with the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) achieving a 62% gain, raising questions about the sustainability of this rally [2][5] - Central banks have been major players in the gold market, purchasing 254 tonnes year-to-date through October 2025, indicating a structural demand rather than opportunistic buying [3][5] - Goldman Sachs projects gold prices to reach $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by central bank demand and macroeconomic uncertainties [3][7] Central Bank Activity - Central banks bought 53 tonnes of gold in October 2025, with Poland contributing 16 tonnes, reflecting strategic reserve shifts rather than speculative trades [5][6] - The World Gold Council's monthly statistics are crucial for monitoring central bank purchases, as a slowdown could indicate waning confidence, while acceleration would reinforce demand [6] Investment Alternatives - The iShares Gold Trust (IAU) offers a lower expense ratio of 0.25% compared to GLD's 0.40%, making it a more cost-effective option for long-term investors [8] - Over five years, IAU has provided a 10.48% annualized return, slightly outperforming GLD's 10.30% due to lower fees, although GLD's larger asset base makes it preferable for larger trades [8]

Core Insights - Precious metals, particularly gold, have shown significant performance in 2025, with the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) achieving a 62% gain, raising questions about the sustainability of this rally [1] - The rally is driven by structural factors, notably central bank purchases, rather than retail sentiment or inflation concerns [3] Central Bank Activity - Central banks purchased 53 tonnes of gold in October 2025, totaling 254 tonnes year-to-date, indicating a strategic shift in reserves rather than opportunistic trading [3] - Poland added 16 tonnes to its reserves, while Brazil continued its buying trend, highlighting ongoing institutional interest [3] Market Signals - Monitoring central bank statistics is crucial; a slowdown in purchases from emerging markets could indicate waning confidence, while increased buying from new entrants would reinforce demand [4] - The Federal Reserve's guidance has also influenced gold prices, with forecasts suggesting gold could reach $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026 due to persistent demand and macroeconomic uncertainty [5] Investment Alternatives - The iShares Gold Trust (IAU) offers a lower-cost alternative to GLD, with a 0.25% expense ratio compared to GLD's 0.40%, resulting in better long-term returns for buy-and-hold investors [6] - GLD's larger asset base of $141 billion compared to IAU's $32 billion makes it more suitable for large or frequent trades [6] Future Outlook - The key macro factor for GLD's performance in the next 12 months is whether central bank buying remains above 50 tonnes monthly [7]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The recent gold rally has not seen widespread participation from investors, with many still lacking allocation to gold despite its rise from 2,000 to 4,000 [3][4] - Central bank buying has been a significant driver of gold's price increase, as they rotate out of US dollars and treasuries into gold, a trend expected to continue and broaden [4][5] - The rise in gold prices is indicative of a loss of confidence in the US fiscal situation, with concerns about the ability to repay debts leading to speculation of either default or inflation [5][6] Group 2: Silver Market Outlook - Silver has recently surpassed the 50 mark, with expectations of reaching 100 an ounce by next year, indicating a strong bullish sentiment in the silver market [10] - The silver market is anticipated to outshine gold as the bull market progresses, suggesting a shift in investor focus [10] Group 3: Cryptocurrency Market Analysis - The performance of Bitcoin and companies like MicroStrategy is under scrutiny, with predictions of potential bankruptcy due to unsustainable business models reliant on borrowing to invest in Bitcoin [11][12] - Bitcoin's recent price decline, despite favorable conditions, suggests that all positive news may already be priced in, leading to a potential collapse as leverage increases [18][21] - The overall sentiment is that the cryptocurrency market is in a bubble, with many cryptocurrencies expected to collapse, contrasting with the more substantial value proposition of gold [29][30] Group 4: Stock Market and AI Bubble Concerns - The stock market is perceived to be buoyed by liquidity and expectations of continued rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, despite concerns over overvaluation [36][37] - There are warnings of a potential shakeout in AI-related stocks, with comparisons drawn to the dot-com bubble, indicating that while AI has real potential, many companies may not survive the current investment climate [27][28] - The AI bubble is considered larger than the crypto bubble, but it is based on more tangible developments, unlike the speculative nature of cryptocurrencies [24][25] Group 5: Economic and Fiscal Policy Implications - The current fiscal and monetary policies are seen as inflationary, with predictions of rising consumer prices due to increased demand without corresponding supply [46][49] - The US dollar's status as the primary reserve currency is under threat, with central banks moving towards gold as a safer asset, indicating a potential shift in the global monetary system [67][72] - The expectation is that the US economy may face significant challenges ahead, with a potential crisis in the dollar and sovereign debt looming [62][64]

Market Trends & Drivers - Precious metals have surged this year, with gold rising about 55% and silver surging about 75% [1] - The rally in precious metals is driven by concerns about the future of the dollar, geopolitical instability, stretched stock market valuations, and expectations for rate cuts by the Fed [2][3] - Silver reached a new all-time high last week and surpassed a decades-old record last month [4] - Silver was trading at a premium in London over New York prices due to an unprecedented drop in inventories [4] - India and China are the largest consumers of silver for industrial use and jewelry [7] Silver's Industrial Applications - Silver has significant industrial uses in electronics, solar panels, and medical devices [5] - Silver is an excellent conductor of electricity and is used in circuit boards, switches, electric vehicles, and batteries [5] - Rising demand and stagnant supply have amplified silver's price rise [6] ETF Performance & Characteristics - iShares Silver Trust (SLV) is the largest silver ETF with 25 billion in assets under management and a 50 basis points expense ratio [8] - abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF (SIVR) is a cheaper physically backed silver ETF with 37 billion in assets and a 30 basis points expense ratio [9] - Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) tracks companies involved in silver mining with 37 billion in assets and a 65 basis points expense ratio [10] - iShares MSCI Global Silver and Metals Miners ETF (SLVP) holds companies involved in silver exploration or metals mining with 585 million in assets and a 39 basis points expense ratio [10] - iShares MSCI Global Silver and Metals Miners ETF (SLVP) is up about 140% year to date, while Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) is up about 115% [12]

Market Valuation & Earnings - The market is trading at 25 times relative to 2025 earnings estimates [2] - Current market valuations may not matter until they do [2] - Companies with high capital expenditure (capex) and debt levels are still being valued at the same multiples as when they were asset-light and cash generative [3] - Investors should consider capex levels relative to revenue when digesting earnings [3] Energy Sector - The speaker favors oil prices, considering them "dirt cheap" [5] - Sanctions on Rosnet and Luke Oil, along with reduced oil purchases by India and China, are seen as potential catalysts for a rally [5] - US shale is no longer a major contributor to global oil supply, and OPEC production is not keeping up with quotas [6] - The speaker believes the market is overly bearish on oil [6] Consumer Staples & Bonds - Consumer staple stocks are trading like bonds with 4%-5% dividend yields [6] - Consumer staples could be a safe haven for investors if the economy slows [6] Gold & Inflation - CPI was still at 3% [8] - Central bank buying is the main driver of gold prices [9] - Risks are for much higher gold and silver prices after a period of consolidation [9]

Core Viewpoint - Gold and silver are experiencing their best week in five years, with Goldman Sachs raising its gold price target to $4,900 by December next year from $4,300, driven by strong inflows from private investors and central banks [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - The rally in gold is primarily fueled by persistent inflows from long-term investors and central banks, rather than speculative trading [2][3]. - Central banks are accelerating their gold purchases, which is broadening the market's diversification rally that began in 2023 [4]. - The gold market is relatively small, approximately 70 times smaller than the US Treasury market, meaning that even minor diversification steps can significantly impact prices [5][6]. Group 2: Investment Outlook - The bullish forecast for gold is supported by central bank buying, which could provide about 15 percentage points of upside [7]. - Historical trends indicate that central bank gold buying cycles are typically long-lasting, with selling unlikely unless there is a significant easing of geopolitical risks or fiscal policy concerns [8]. - Current uncertainties regarding trade, credit, and fiscal policy are contributing to the bullish outlook for gold [9]. Group 3: Silver Market Insights - The medium-term outlook for silver prices is also positive, as Fed cuts are expected to boost ETF inflows, although the market is more volatile compared to gold [10]. - Silver's price movements are influenced by industrial demand, but the lack of central bank buying makes its outlook less certain than gold's [11][12].