[Music] Hello and welcome to morning brief market sunrise. I'm Ramsan Carmali live from Yahoo Finance studios in London. It's Tuesday 14th October.Coming up on the show, US China trade tensions are weighing on the markets. JP Morgan Chase kicks off earning season with a big win. and I'll explain why the stocks that help power our electronics are skyrocketing.So, grab your coffee and let's own the morning. [Music] Well, our top story today is all about the growing trade tensions between China and the US. The ...

Group 1 - Gold has reached extreme overbought conditions, with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 89.72, the highest since at least 1980 [1][3] - The recent rally in gold prices, approximately 43% in 2025, is attributed to macroeconomic uncertainty, central bank buying, and increased demand for safe-haven assets [2][5] - Central banks have significantly increased their gold reserves in 2025, providing structural support to gold prices [6] Group 2 - The current RSI level suggests sustained bullish momentum, but also indicates potential exhaustion, warning traders of possible price corrections or consolidations [3][4] - Factors such as declining real yields due to global rate cuts, persistent inflation concerns, and geopolitical tensions are driving gold's appeal [5][6] - Analysts are projecting that gold prices could reach $5,000 by the end of 2025, supported by a weakening U.S. dollar and expectations of further monetary easing [6]

Gold Market Dynamics - Central bank buying, especially from China, continues to be a tailwind for gold, as they diversify away from the dollar [1] - US and Western investor concerns about the ballooning twin deficits (budget and trade) are adding to the gold rally [2] - Rate cuts may spark an upside move in silver, viewed as gold's little cousin, which tends to outperform gold in long bull markets [7] Agnico Eagle Mines Analysis - Agnico Eagle Mines is a top pick due to its ability to deliver on guidance and execute well on projects, ideally outperforming the gold price by a ratio of 2 to 1 [3] - Agnico Eagle Mines has good growth for its size, with a market cap of $70 billion, low cost, enormous exploration upside, and a suite of perspective projects [4] Platinum Market Insights - Limited supply from South Africa and potentially limited access to Russian supplies are driving interest in platinum [5] - Demand in China is potentially accelerating for platinum, possibly for jewelry buying and investments into hydrogen infrastructure [5]

Core Insights - Rising global trade tensions and increasing fiscal debt are driving investors towards safe-haven assets, particularly gold, leading to upgraded price forecasts by analysts [1][4] Gold Price Forecasts - The median forecast for gold in 2025 has increased to $3,220 per troy ounce from $3,065, while the 2026 projection has risen to $3,400 from $3,000 [2] - Spot gold has gained 27% year to date, reaching a record $3,500 per ounce in April amid escalating U.S.-China trade tensions [2] Demand Drivers - Investor demand for gold is fueled by uncertainty over trade deadlines and growing fiscal fears, exacerbated by the passage of Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill," which is expected to add $3.3 trillion to the national debt [4] - Central bank buying is a significant factor in gold's strength, with China increasing its gold reserves for eight consecutive months and nearly 40% of central banks acquiring gold due to geopolitical risks [6] Market Dynamics - Despite gold's recent gains, it remains below its April highs, with analysts noting a short-term market consolidation and a lack of immediate catalysts for a rally [5] Investment Opportunities - Investors can consider gold ETFs such as SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), iShares Gold Trust (IAU), and mining ETFs like VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) as attractive entry points [7]

Core Viewpoint - The gold mining industry, particularly AngloGold Ashanti and Barrick Mining, is experiencing significant growth driven by rising gold prices, which have increased by 28% this year due to safe-haven demand amid geopolitical uncertainties and economic factors [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - AngloGold Ashanti operates 11 assets across various countries and recently acquired Centamin, enhancing its portfolio with a Tier 1 asset capable of producing 500,000 ounces annually [4][5]. - Barrick Mining is advancing key growth projects and has a strong pipeline of opportunities, including a focus on copper to diversify its operations [9][11]. Group 2: Production and Financials - AngloGold Ashanti's total gold production for 2024 was 2.661 million ounces, with projections for 2025 between 2.9-3.225 million ounces [5]. - Barrick Mining reported gold production of 758,000 ounces in Q1 2025, exceeding its guidance, and is on track to produce 3.15-3.5 million ounces for the year [10][11]. Group 3: Cost and Dividend Policies - AngloGold Ashanti's total cash costs per ounce rose 4% year-over-year to $1,157, while all-in-sustaining costs increased to $1,611 per ounce [7]. - Barrick Mining's cash costs per ounce increased by approximately 16%, with AISC rising by 20% year-over-year in Q1 2025 [13]. Group 4: Market Performance and Valuation - Year-to-date, AngloGold Ashanti's stock has surged 85.2%, outperforming the industry, while Barrick Mining's stock has gained 23.4% [16]. - AngloGold Ashanti is trading at a forward earnings multiple of 11.89X, while Barrick Mining is at 10.93X, indicating differing valuations [18]. Group 5: Analyst Estimates and Recommendations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AngloGold Ashanti's 2025 earnings is $3.48, reflecting a 57.5% year-over-year growth, while Barrick Mining's estimate is $1.66, indicating a 31.75% increase [14][15]. - Analysts suggest Barrick Mining may be a more attractive investment due to its higher payout ratio, active share repurchase program, and favorable price targets compared to AngloGold Ashanti [22][23].