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摩根士丹利:中国房地产_5 月数据恶化;预计疲软趋势将在第三季度延续
摩根· 2025-06-23 02:10
Investment Rating - Industry view is rated as In-Line [9] Core Insights - Property sales and home prices are expected to continue declining in the third quarter due to high secondary inventory and weakening resident sentiment [1] - Quality state-owned enterprises (SOEs) with good visibility are recommended for investment, with CR Land identified as a top pick [1][2] Monthly Property Sales - Home sales in 65 cities saw a year-on-year decrease of 11% in primary sales volume and a 5% decrease in secondary sales volume [3] - Year-to-date growth for primary sales is now at 0.1% and 13% for secondary sales as of May 2025 [3] Property Prices - Primary home prices in 70 cities dropped by 4.1% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, while secondary home prices fell by 6.3% year-on-year and 0.5% month-on-month [4] - In top-10 cities, secondary prices decreased by 5.4% year-on-year, and in top-100 cities, they fell by 7.2% year-on-year [4] Secondary Market - Listing volume for secondary properties increased, with new listings up by 6% year-on-year but down 11% month-on-month [5] - Client visits to properties increased by 20% year-on-year and 3% month-on-month [5] Inventory - Primary inventory levels in tracked cities remained stable at 23.4 months, with tier 1 cities decreasing slightly to 14.2 months [6] Land Market - Land sales in 300 cities decreased by 13.8% year-on-year in gross floor area (GFA) but increased by 17.8% in value [7] - The year-to-date decline in land sales is now at 6.4% in GFA [7]
摩根士丹利:中国房地产-5 月数据恶化,预计三季度弱势延续
摩根· 2025-06-19 09:47
Investment Rating - Industry view is rated as In-Line [9] Core Insights - Property sales and home prices are expected to continue declining in the third quarter due to high secondary inventory and weakening resident sentiment [1][2] - Quality state-owned enterprises (SOEs) with high visibility are recommended for investment, with CR Land identified as a top pick [1][2] Monthly Property Sales - Home sales weakened further, with primary sales volume in 65 cities down 11% year-on-year and secondary sales volume in 33 cities down 5% year-on-year [3] - Year-to-date growth for primary sales is now at +0.1% year-on-year, while secondary sales are at +13% year-on-year for the first five months of 2025 [3] Property Prices - Housing prices are declining at an accelerated rate, with primary home prices in 70 cities dropping 4.1% year-on-year and secondary home prices down 6.3% year-on-year [4] - The decline in secondary prices for the top 10 cities is 5.4% year-on-year, while for the top 100 cities, it is 7.2% year-on-year [4] Secondary Market - Listing volume continues to increase, with secondary listing prices down 8.1% year-on-year [5] - New secondary listings increased by 6% year-on-year but decreased by 11% month-on-month due to seasonality [5] Inventory - Primary inventory levels in tracked cities remained stable at 23.4 months, with tier 1 cities decreasing slightly to 14.2 months [6] Land Market - Land sales in 300 cities decreased by 13.8% year-on-year in gross floor area, while the value increased by 17.8% year-on-year [7] - The year-to-date land sales decline in gross floor area is now at -6.4% year-on-year [7]
中国房地产_亚太地区每周数据库追踪
2025-06-09 01:42
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Property - **Date**: June 3, 2025 - **Region**: Asia Pacific Core Insights and Arguments - **Primary Unit Sales**: Weekly primary unit sales in 50 cities decreased by **17% YoY** compared to a **5% YoY increase** the previous week [2] - **Tier 1 City Sales**: Sales in Tier 1 cities increased by **4% YoY**, down from **29% YoY** last week [2] - **Tier 2 City Sales**: Sales in Tier 2 cities fell by **25% YoY**, a significant drop from a **4% YoY increase** last week [2] - **Tier 3 City Sales**: Sales in Tier 3 cities rose by **2% YoY**, compared to a **10% YoY decline** last week [2] - **Secondary Unit Sales**: Weekly secondary unit sales in 10 cities increased by **2% YoY**, down from **9% YoY** last week [3] - **Tier 1 City Secondary Sales**: Increased by **13% YoY**, slightly down from **15% YoY** last week [3] - **Tier 2 City Secondary Sales**: Decreased by **3% YoY**, compared to a **7% YoY increase** last week [3] - **Sell-Through Rate**: The total sell-through rate was **73%**, up from **68%** last week [3] - **Tier 1 Cities Sell-Through Rate**: Recorded at **61%**, an increase from **55%** [3] - **Tier 2 Cities Sell-Through Rate**: Recorded at **78%**, down from **81%** [3] - **Asking Price Index**: The Centaline six-city secondary asking price tracking index was **20.9%**, down from **21.5%** last week [3] Additional Important Information - **Analyst View**: The industry view is rated as **In-Line** by Morgan Stanley [6] - **Analysts Involved**: Stephen Cheung, CFA and Cara Zhu are the equity analysts covering this sector [6] - **Investment Banking Relationships**: Morgan Stanley expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from several companies in the China property sector, including Country Garden Holdings Company Limited [15] This summary encapsulates the key data and insights from the conference call, highlighting the current trends and performance metrics within the China property market.
摩根大通:中国房地产国家统计局 4 月数据:进一步走软
摩根· 2025-05-21 06:36
Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the China property sector, expecting further moderation in sales and prices, with a full-year forecast of a 7% year-over-year decline in residential sales value [1][3]. Core Insights - The latest data from NBS indicates a continued softening in the housing market, with residential sales value dropping 6.6% year-over-year in April, marking a significant decline compared to the previous month [3]. - The report highlights that primary and secondary home prices have also shown signs of moderation, with primary prices declining by 0.12% month-over-month and secondary prices dropping by 0.41% month-over-month in April [3]. - New construction starts have seen a significant year-over-year decline of 22% in April, with expectations of a 13% decline for the full year of 2025 [3]. - Completions have softened considerably, with a year-over-year decline widening from 12% in March to 29% in April, forecasting a 25% decline for the full year of 2025 [3]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - National residential sales value decreased by 6.6% year-over-year in April, a notable drop from a decline of 0.4% in March, and a 47% decline compared to the 4-year average [3][21]. - The report anticipates a further decline of approximately 10% year-over-year in June due to a higher base from policy easing in mid-May 2024 [3]. Price Trends - The 70-city home price index indicates a marginal widening in primary prices' month-over-month decline from 0.08% in March to 0.12% in April, while secondary prices fell by 0.41% month-over-month [3][7]. - The year-over-year decline in secondary prices is noted as the worst since October 2024, with tier-1 cities also experiencing negative month-over-month changes [3][11]. Construction Activity - New starts in April dropped by 22% year-over-year, with a decline of 71% compared to the 4-year average, marking the worst performance since October 2024 [3][40]. - Completions have also softened, with a year-over-year decline of 29% in April, leading to a forecast of a 25% decline for the full year of 2025 [3][47]. Investment Outlook - The report suggests that if sales and prices deteriorate faster than expected, stronger government policy support may be rolled out, potentially leading to a market rally [1][3]. - The top picks for investment in the sector include CR Land and CR Mixc, with a tactical interest in turnaround stories such as Longfor, Jinmao, and COPH [1].