Core Viewpoint - An analyst from Rothschild & Co Redburn has downgraded the ratings for Amazon and Microsoft, citing concerns that the current market valuations are based on outdated "cloud-1.0" economics, which may not apply to the more costly generative AI landscape [1][3][4] Company Analysis - The analyst, Alex Haissl, believes that the AI boom will not replicate the low-cost structure that benefited Big Tech in the 2010s, indicating that the costs associated with AI investments are likely underestimated by investors [2][5] - Amazon and Microsoft are projected to spend approximately $349 billion in capital expenditures (capex) this year, with a significant portion allocated to AI infrastructure [4] - The cost of AI hardware is substantial, with GPUs costing around $40 billion in capex per gigawatt of power, while generating only about $10 billion in revenue per gigawatt [4][6] Market Dynamics - The lifespan of AI chips is relatively short, which could lead to projects becoming "value destructive" if GPUs need to be replaced every three years, further increasing costs [6] - Hyperscalers like Amazon and Microsoft have limited pricing power, which could exacerbate financial pressures if they cannot pass on higher costs to end users [6][7] - Recent stock performance indicates a significant re-rating, with Amazon shares down approximately 13% and Microsoft shares down 10% from their recent peaks [7] Growth Outlook - While there may still be some potential for growth, it is viewed as limited compared to market expectations, and the value of that growth is considered low [8][9] - The analyst does not foresee a bearish scenario for the near term but also does not maintain a bullish outlook, suggesting that a meaningful reduction in capex and high growth would be necessary for a more optimistic view [9] - The tech sector, particularly stocks related to AI, has faced declines, with the Nasdaq 100 down 6% from its late October high and the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF down 7% from its peak [9][10]

is about 40% below where we are right now. We got the analyst behind the call. That is Alex Hazel joining us now live from London.Alex, I'm sure uh you've received some choice and colorful comments to your email inbox today. Uh but you call it as you see it. We appreciate it.What is the basis of this call. Um yeah, first of all, thanks for having me on the show. The basis is really we see like big headline figures in terms of like order wins and also revenues but our work really shows that the value uh subs ...