Key Takeaways from Cobalt Expert Call Industry Overview - The focus of the call was on the cobalt industry, particularly in Greater China, with insights provided by Mr. Liu Lei, a cobalt expert from Mysteel [2][3]. Cobalt Inventory and Consumption - China's cobalt inventory is projected to consume **42,000 tons (kt)** in 2025, decreasing to approximately **30kt** by the end of 2025. Most inventory is in the form of cobalt metal, excluding about **13kt** in bonded warehouses, primarily owned by foreign traders [2]. - Current ex-China cobalt inventory is estimated at **8kt** [2]. - Cobalt consumption is expected to grow at an annual rate of **8-10%** in the coming years, with a global cobalt deficit projected to be between **25-30kt** in 2026 [9]. Demand Projections - Demand for cobalt from lithium cobalt oxide batteries, mainly used in consumer electronics, is estimated at **77kt** in 2025, potentially rising to **85kt** in 2026 [3]. - Demand from ternary batteries is projected at **85kt** for 2025, while demand for high-temperature alloys and super hard alloys is estimated at **6kt** and **8kt**, respectively [3]. Price Sensitivity - Consumer electronics and high-temperature alloys show low sensitivity to cobalt prices, as lithium cobalt oxide batteries constitute a small portion of their costs. In contrast, electric vehicle (EV) battery demand is sensitive to cobalt prices, with a potential cost increase of **Rmb0.6-1.3k** for every **Rmb100k/t** rise in cobalt prices, impacting EV manufacturers' profitability [4]. Market Outlook - Mr. Liu Lei expressed an optimistic outlook, predicting that China's cobalt price could reach **Rmb450k/t** by year-end, while overseas prices might reach **US$26/lb** [9]. - Cobalt shipments from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) are expected to commence in mid-December, arriving in China by late January or early February, with ongoing inventory digestion during this period [9]. Additional Insights - The price gap between cobalt salts and cobalt metal may incentivize smelting metal into salts, potentially reaching **1-2k tons** of metal per month [2]. - The expert's views are independent and may differ from those of Morgan Stanley's Research Department [5]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the cobalt expert call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the cobalt industry in Greater China.