We believe the share price will rise in absolute terms over the next 30 days. DRC announced an extension to the cobalt export ban to October 15, to be followed by export quotas. The 2026-27 quota will be 40% of normal production. We expect cobalt supply to be materially impacted as DRC accounts for 70% of global supply. Nickel smelters in Indonesia using laterite nickel ore and the HPAL method can normally get ~10% cobalt as a byproduct, and we expect them to benefit from a potential hike in the cobalt pric ...

September 22, 2025 12:17 AM GMT China Materials | Asia Pacific DRC cobalt export ban extended, quota follows; assessing impact on Chinese producers Key Takeaways What's new? DRC announced a cobalt export ban extension to Oct 15, to be followed by export quotas: What's the impact? DRC accounted for 70%+ of global cobalt production in 2024, and we estimate these quotas would lead to a material supply decline in 2026-27. CMOC sold 109kt and 46kt cobalt in 2024 and 1H25. Assuming it can get a quota proportion s ...