Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on December 10, 2025 [1][3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price in China is 92,220, LME price is not given, and the three - month price in China is 91,170 with an LME price of 11,470 and a ratio of 8.00. Spot import and export profit data are not provided [1] - **Zinc**: Spot price in China is 23,190, LME price is 3,264 with a ratio of 7.10. Three - month price in China is 23,080, LME price is 3,102 with a ratio of 5.54. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.43, and the profit is - 4,325.31 [1] - **Aluminum**: Spot price in China is 21,880, LME price is 2,826 with a ratio of 7.75. Three - month price in China is 21,825, LME price is 2,858 with a ratio of 7.64. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.31, and the profit is - 1,606.98 [1] - **Nickel**: Spot price in China is 120,300, LME price is 14,620 with a ratio of 8.23. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.12, and the profit is - 942.40 [1] - **Lead**: Spot price in China is 17,150, LME price is 1,942 with a ratio of 8.80. Three - month price in China is 17,165, LME price is 1,992 with a ratio of 11.59. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.67, and the profit is 251.19 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract are - 1,860, - 1,780, - 1,750, and - 1,850 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 567, 1,032, 1,505, and 1,979 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract are - 200, - 190, - 175, and - 175 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 219, 345, 470, and 595 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract are - 475, - 425, - 380, and - 340 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 222, 346, 469, and 592 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract are - 115, - 120, - 120, and - 135 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 211, 319, 426, and 534 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract are - 380, - 110, 20, and 260 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is 890, and the theoretical spread is 6,436 [4] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - **Domestic (Shanghai)**: The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc are 3.95, 4.18, 5.31, 0.95, 1.27, and 0.74 respectively [5] - **LME**: The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc are 3.72, 4.02, 5.81, 0.92, 1.44, and 0.64 respectively [5] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are 785 and - 1,075 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 278 and 516 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are 80 and - 120 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 75 and 210 (also 150 and 212 in another record) [4][5] - **Lead**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are 135 and 20 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 115 and 229 [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on June 10, 2025, which helps investors understand the price relationships and potential arbitrage opportunities in the non - ferrous metal market [1][4][8] Summary by Directory Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On June 10, 2025, the domestic spot price was 78,840, the LME price was 9,828, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.16 with a profit of - 1215.58; the domestic March price was 78,790, the LME price was 9,733, and the ratio was 8.09 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,630, the LME price was 2,619, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.72 with a profit of - 212.94; the domestic March price was 21,735, the LME price was 2,655, and the ratio was 6.30 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20,210, the LME price was 2,452, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.65 with a profit of - 1004.60; the domestic March price was 19,930, the LME price was 2,453, and the ratio was 8.18 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 124,150, the LME price was 15,321, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.26 with a profit of - 4137.69 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,500, the LME price was 1,954, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.90 with a profit of - 860.26; the domestic March price was 16,770, the LME price was 1,982, and the ratio was 11.25 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the next month, March, April, and May relative to the spot month were - 100, - 220, - 430, and - 680 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 497, 892, 1296, and 1700 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 645, - 820, - 950, and - 1010 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 216, 338, 459, and 581 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 130, - 225, - 290, and - 330 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 212, 325, 437, and 550 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 30, 35, 20, and 10 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 209, 313, 418, and 523 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were 720, 880, 1070, and 1280 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The spread of the 5 - 1 contract was - 360, and the theoretical spread was 5467 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were 170 and 70 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 179 and 601 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 75 and - 720 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 86 and 189 [6] - **Lead**: The spreads were 235 and 265 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 129 and 239 [6] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On June 10, 2025, for cross - variety arbitrage, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in the Shanghai (three - continuous) market were 3.63, 3.95, 4.70, 0.92, 1.19, and 0.77 respectively, and in the London (three - continuous) market were 3.70, 3.95, 4.93, 0.94, 1.25, and 0.75 respectively [8]

Core Viewpoint - COMEX copper has recently experienced a significant premium compared to LME copper and Shanghai copper futures, driven by supply disruptions and U.S. government investigations into copper imports [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Movements and Market Dynamics - On February 26, COMEX copper surged by 4.9%, reaching 4.732 cents per pound, equivalent to $10,432 per ton, which is nearly $1,000 higher than LME copper during the same period [2][3]. - The year-to-date increase in COMEX copper prices stands at 17%, significantly outperforming LME copper's 7.98% and Shanghai copper's 4.23% [10]. - The price disparity between COMEX and LME copper has led to an increase in arbitrage activities, with more shipments directed towards the U.S. market [5][11]. Group 2: Supply Chain Disruptions - A large-scale power outage in Chile on February 25 affected several major copper mines, disrupting mining operations in the world's largest copper-producing country [4][18]. - The COMEX copper inventory has reached a historical high, exceeding 100,000 tons, indicating a potential for further increases in the future [6][12]. Group 3: U.S. Government Investigations - The U.S. initiated a Section 232 investigation into copper imports, which may lead to new tariffs and further impact copper prices and supply chains [3][8]. - The investigation is expected to focus on major copper suppliers from the Americas, including Chile, Mexico, and Canada, while Chinese brands currently have minimal direct impact on COMEX [14]. Group 4: Company Performance and Growth - The recent price increases are likely to enhance profitability for copper-related companies in the first quarter, with a high probability of year-on-year profit growth [21][23]. - Chinese copper companies, such as Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, have shown significant production growth, with Zijin Mining expected to produce 115,000 tons of copper in 2025, a 7.5% increase from 2024 [24][27]. - Luoyang Molybdenum is also projected to enter the top ten global copper producers, with a production target of 65,000 tons [25].