Core Insights - Pale Fire Capital SE has increased its stake in IAMGOLD Corporation by purchasing 2.61 million shares, raising its total holding to 3.93 million shares valued at approximately $50.83 million as of September 30 [2][3][6] - IAMGOLD's stock price has surged by 242% over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500, which has risen about 15% in the same timeframe [4] - IAMGOLD Corporation operates a vertically integrated mining business model, focusing on gold extraction, processing, and sales from various mining assets across North America, South America, and West Africa [5][8] Company Overview - IAMGOLD's current stock price is $17.61, with a market capitalization of $10.44 billion and a revenue of $2.23 billion over the trailing twelve months (TTM) [5] - The company reported a net income of $344 million TTM, indicating a strong financial performance [5] - IAMGOLD's primary revenue sources include the Rosebel, Essakane, Westwood, and Côté gold projects, showcasing a diversified asset base [5][8] Investment Implications - The increase in IAMGOLD's stake by Pale Fire Capital SE reflects confidence in the company's operational execution and its ability to capitalize on higher gold prices without the leverage risks faced in previous cycles [9][10] - The shift in IAMGOLD's operational narrative from survival to execution suggests a more stable production profile, which is likely to attract further investment [10] - IAMGOLD's positioning within a portfolio heavily tilted toward cyclical and commodity-linked names indicates its complementary role in the current market environment [11]

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy 03 December 2025 Global Commodities 2026 Outlook Supply-driven crocodile cycle—tight metals continue to beat glutted energy. G9 old remains a fourth-year buy Key Takeaways Figure 1: BCOM Energy vs All Metals ER indices and JPM forecast Index level (dashed is forecast) Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Global Commodities Research Natasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175 natasha.kaneva@jpmorgan.com JPMorgan Chase Bank NA Gregory C. Shearer (44-20) ...

Market Overview - The current market environment is characterized by changing global supply, demand, and investor sentiment, with precious metals leading gains alongside industrial metals, as indicated by a 10% increase in the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) as of November 19, 2025 [2] - Four out of six BCOM sectors reported gains in Q3, while petroleum rose by 4%, with grains and energy sectors being exceptions [2] - China's major commodity imports eased in October, with iron ore showing resilience despite declines in crude oil, natural gas, and coal [3] - The World Bank's Commodity Markets Outlook predicts a 7% decline in global commodity prices in 2026 due to subdued economic activity, trade tensions, and excess oil supplies, while precious metals are expected to grow by 5% [4] LNG Supply Growth - Global LNG supply is projected to grow by 10.2% in 2026, driven by U.S. expansions, with capacity expected to rise to 130 million tons in 2026 from 90 million tons in 2024 [5] Investment Strategy - The list of the 12 best commodity stocks is curated based on hedge fund interest, utilizing data from Insider Monkey's hedge fund database, which tracks 983 stocks as of Q2 2025 [8] - Research indicates that imitating top stock picks of leading hedge funds can lead to market outperformance [9] Company Highlights Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (NYSE:APD) - Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. is among the top commodity stocks, with 53 hedge fund holders [11] - The company reported Q4 FY25 EPS of $3.39, slightly above the forecast of $3.38, with a full-year EPS of $12.03, down 3% year-over-year [13] - Management highlighted a focus on cost-reset strategies, including a 16% workforce reduction, and stable operating margins at 23.7% [13] - The NEOM green hydrogen project is nearly 90% complete, with expectations for ammonia output in 2027 [14] EOG Resources, Inc. (NYSE:EOG) - EOG Resources, Inc. also has 53 hedge fund holders and maintained a price target of $145 with a "Buy" rating [16] - The company reported Q3 net income of $1.5 billion and free cash flow of $1.4 billion, with adjusted EPS of $2.71 [17] - EOG returned $1 billion to shareholders through dividends and repurchases, with regular dividend payments increasing by 8% year-over-year [18] - The company raised its free cash flow guidance to $4.5 billion, ending the quarter with $3.5 billion in cash [19] The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS) - The Mosaic Company has 54 hedge fund holders and received a "Buy" rating from Goldman Sachs, with a lowered price target from $37 to $33 [21][22] - The company reported Q3 net income of $411 million, up from $122 million year-over-year, and adjusted EBITDA of $806 million [23] - Mosaic aims to achieve $250 million in cost savings by 2026, having already recorded $150 million in reductions [25]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zijin Mining is "Buy" with a target price of HK$39.00, representing an expected total return of 16.7% [6][8]. Core Insights - The report presents a bullish outlook on gold and copper prices, driven by geopolitical tensions, potential FED rate cuts, and increased gold reserves in emerging countries [2][4]. - Zijin Gold aims for an output target of 100 tons per annum (tpa) by 2030, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% through 2030, primarily through internal production improvements and acquisitions [3]. - The copper supply-demand dynamic indicates a robust demand forecast, with expectations of reaching 40 million tons per annum (mntpa) by 2035, despite current output challenges faced by Zijin [4]. Summary by Sections Gold Price Outlook - Mr. Lin holds a positive view on gold prices, citing historical increases during previous economic cycles and suggesting further upside potential in the current cycle [2]. Copper Supply-Demand Dynamics - Global top-10 copper miners produced approximately 8 million tons of copper in the first nine months of 2025, with Zijin experiencing a 2% year-over-year decrease in output due to mine disruptions and logistical issues [4]. Acquisition Plans - Zijin Mining is actively seeking acquisition opportunities in copper, gold, and lithium, with specific targets in South America and Africa, aiming for a lithium capacity of 200-250 kilotons per annum by 2028 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The natural resources sector has experienced a strong rally due to rising commodity prices, benefiting many companies, but not all are performing well [1] Company Summary - Core Natural Resources (CNR) is currently lagging behind its peers despite the overall commodity rally, struggling with execution, inconsistent production volumes, and declining profitability [2] - CNR's Zacks Rank is 5 (Strong Sell) due to negative earnings revisions from analysts, with the current year consensus estimate dropping from $5.37 to a loss of $1.10, and next year's estimates decreasing from $12.24 to $10.39 [3] - The company's profitability issues stem from higher input costs, operational inefficiencies, and tougher contract terms, alongside a rising debt load due to capital spending, resulting in a multi-year high debt-to-equity ratio [4] - The combination of shrinking margins and increasing debt indicates that CNR is poorly positioned in the current commodity cycle, suggesting investors should remain cautious until earnings revisions improve [5] Industry Summary - The coal industry ranks in the bottom 14% of the Zacks Industry Rank, with no stocks currently rated favorably, only two stocks holding a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [6]

Summary of ONEOK (OKE) Fireside Chat - May 28, 2025 Company Overview - **Company**: ONEOK (OKE) - **Industry**: Energy and Natural Gas Key Points and Arguments Commodity Price Impact - ONEOK is less affected by commodity price fluctuations compared to other companies, which can see cash flow changes of up to 40% with a $1 change in gas or a $10 change in oil prices [4][6] - Recent oil price declines have not led to a decrease in volume for ONEOK, indicating stability in their operations [4][6] Natural Gas Outlook - Natural gas production in the U.S. has increased from approximately 20 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in 2000-2007 to around 42 Tcf in 2024, driven by coal-to-gas conversions and LNG exports [8][9] - Current LNG export facilities are projected to increase capacity to 10 billion cubic feet (Bcf) per day, with potential future expansions [10] - The demand for natural gas is expected to grow due to factors such as artificial intelligence data centers and ongoing coal plant conversions [11] Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) and Petrochemicals - NGLs are primarily byproducts of crude oil and natural gas production, and their value is dependent on transportation to markets where they can be sold at higher prices [12][13] - The U.S. is expected to remain a significant supplier of ethane to petrochemical companies, with a notable portion being exported to China [18][20] Regulatory Environment - The current administration is actively seeking specific feedback from the industry to improve regulatory processes, which is seen as a positive change [22] - Tariff policies are viewed as volatile, but there is a growing understanding that they may not be permanent [23][24] Strategic Focus and Growth - ONEOK's strategy emphasizes brownfield expansions to reduce capital costs and enhance integration within their existing systems [26][27] - The company has divested non-integrated assets to focus on core business areas, which has allowed for better capital allocation [28] Financial Strategy - ONEOK aims for a balanced capital allocation strategy, prioritizing organic growth projects while maintaining a strong dividend policy [75][76] - The company targets a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of around 3.5 times, with plans for stock buybacks if excess cash is generated [78][79] Storage and Volatility Management - Storage capacity is seen as a critical component for managing the volatility of natural gas pricing, especially with increasing LNG exports [37][44] - ONEOK is expanding its storage capabilities, which are expected to provide opportunities in a volatile market [47][59] Customer Diversification - The company is shifting from a supply-push model to a demand-pull model, diversifying its customer base and reducing reliance on specific markets [51][52] Long-term Outlook - The Bakken region is expected to sustain production levels for decades, supported by advancements in drilling technology [54] - ONEOK anticipates continued growth in its core business, driven by synergies from recent acquisitions and ongoing demand for natural gas and NGLs [83][84] Additional Important Insights - The integration of various assets is a key focus for ONEOK, as it allows for better control over revenue streams and operational efficiencies [91][94] - The company is positioned well in the LNG market, with the U.S. being a significant player in global exports, particularly to Asia [71][72] This summary captures the essential insights from the ONEOK Fireside Chat, highlighting the company's strategic focus, market outlook, and financial strategies.