Core Viewpoint - Freeport-McMoRan's stock has increased by 19% year-to-date, but it is perceived as unattractive due to moderate operational performance and financial condition, despite strong copper prices and demand driven by electrification and renewable energy trends [2] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Freeport-McMoRan reported revenue of $6.6 billion, a 5% decrease year-over-year, with net income at $970 million, down 19%, and adjusted EBITDA at $1.8 billion, also lower than prior-year figures [3] - Free cash flow decreased to $450 million, affected by weaker pricing and high mining costs [3] - The balance sheet shows $9.5 billion in debt against $1.3 billion in cash, indicating limited flexibility during downturns [3] Valuation - Freeport is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.5, significantly higher than the S&P 500's ratio of 24, and at 38.1x free cash flows compared to the S&P 500's 21.4x [4] Growth Metrics - Over the last three years, Freeport's revenues have grown at an average annual rate of 2.5%, compared to 5.3% for the S&P 500 [5] - In the last twelve months, sales rose by 4.6% from $25 billion to $26 billion, with a recent quarterly revenue increase of 14.5% year-over-year, reaching $7.6 billion [5] Profitability - In the past year, Freeport generated $6.9 billion in operating income with a margin of 26.8%, and $6.6 billion in operating cash flow with a margin of 25.4% [6] - Net income was $1.9 billion with a margin of 7.5%, while net margins for the S&P 500 stood at 18.86% [6] Financial Stability - Freeport has a debt-to-equity ratio of 14.4%, below the S&P 500 average of 20.3%, but has a minimal cash balance, with cash constituting 7.9% of total assets [7] Downturn Resilience - Freeport has underperformed the S&P 500 during economic downturns, with a 51.7% decline during the inflationary shock of 2022 compared to a 25.4% decline for the S&P 500 [8] - During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, Freeport's stock dropped by 60.8%, while the S&P 500 saw a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% [8] Investment Outlook - The combination of high valuation, weak growth, and moderate profitability makes Freeport's stock currently unattractive to investors [9]

Core Viewpoint - EQT Corp has faced a significant decline in stock price, dropping nearly 12% over the past five days, primarily due to a 7% decrease in natural gas futures driven by cooler weather predictions, high storage levels, and strong production [2][4] Group 1: Market Performance - EQT's stock performance has been notably poor compared to its competitors, with Coterra Energy and Expand Energy experiencing declines of 3% and 9% respectively, highlighting EQT's vulnerability due to its exposure to spot prices and pipeline limitations [3] - The decline in natural gas prices is attributed to record U.S. production, larger-than-expected storage injections, milder weather predictions, and reduced global LNG demand, creating a supply surplus [4] Group 2: Financial Metrics - EQT's valuation appears high, with a price-to-sales ratio of 4.2x, a price-to-free cash flow of 26.8x, and a price-to-earnings ratio of 27.4x, all exceeding the S&P 500 averages [5] - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with a 39.6% increase over the past year, rising from $4.5 billion to $6.3 billion, and a quarterly revenue surge of 170% year-over-year [6] - Operating margin stands at 21.6% and operating cash flow margin at 53.9%, significantly higher than the S&P 500 average, but net income margin is only 5.8%, indicating challenges from high depreciation and hedging costs [7] Group 3: Balance Sheet and Liquidity - EQT carries $8.3 billion in debt against a market capitalization of $34 billion, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 24.4%, which is above the S&P 500's 19.4% [8] - The company's liquidity is concerning, with only $555 million in cash on total assets of $40 billion, leading to a cash-to-assets ratio of 1.4% [8] Group 4: Historical Performance in Downturns - Historically, EQT has underperformed during market downturns, with significant declines during past crises, such as a 43% drop during the 2022 inflation shock and a 69.5% drop in the 2008 financial crisis [9] Group 5: Investment Strategy - Despite impressive growth and cash flow, EQT's weak balance sheet and premium valuation raise concerns about downside risk, suggesting that investing in diversified portfolios may be a safer strategy [10]