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Growth Curve By Austin Lieberman
Austin.Substack· 2025-10-24 15:02
Core Viewpoint - The company has made a significant investment in Amazon, constituting a 20% position in its portfolio, indicating a belief in the stock's potential for growth in the near future [1]. Position Sizing - The company reflects on its evolving risk tolerance over the years, noting that personal circumstances, such as family commitments, have influenced its investment strategy [2]. - Despite a year-to-date gain of 30%, the company emphasizes a cautious approach to risk, contrasting its strategy with those of investors achieving higher returns through margin or concentrated positions in volatile stocks [3]. Investment Horizon - The company is focused on long-term investment, prioritizing family financial security over short-term portfolio maximization [4]. Portfolio Impact Analysis - A potential 50% increase in Amazon's stock could significantly impact the overall portfolio, while a similar decrease is deemed unlikely [5]. - In comparison, IREN Limited, with a smaller 2.5% position, is viewed as more susceptible to volatility, with a potential 50% loss having a lesser impact on the overall portfolio [6]. Position Building Strategy - The company prefers to start with smaller positions in high-growth stocks, gradually increasing them as confidence in the business grows, minimizing potential losses if the investment does not perform as expected [7]. Portfolio Performance - Since August 29, 2022, the portfolio has achieved a return of 111%, outperforming both the SPY and QQQ indices, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27% [8]. Current Portfolio Insights - The company shares its portfolio and transactions weekly, focusing on underfollowed small to medium-cap stocks to identify new investment opportunities [10].
If You'd Invested $500 in The Trade Desk Stock 5 Years Ago, Here's How Much You'd Have Today
The Motley Fool· 2025-08-15 18:11
Core Viewpoint - The Trade Desk's recent stock performance has raised questions about whether the current price presents a buying opportunity despite a significant decline in investor gains over the past few years [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Valuation - The Trade Desk's stock had previously seen a remarkable 156% gain over two years, trading at high valuation multiples of 134 times free cash flow and 30 times sales [1]. - Recent earnings reports have been strong, but the market reacted negatively, resulting in a loss of several years of investor gains, with a $500 investment five years ago now worth only $576 [2]. - In contrast, the S&P 500 index more than doubled during the same period, achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.6%, while The Trade Desk's CAGR was only 2.9% [4]. Group 2: Current Valuation and Growth Potential - The Trade Desk's stock is now available at a more reasonable valuation of 33 times free cash flow and 9 times sales, which is still lower than Nvidia's multiples of 62 times free cash flow and 30 times sales [6]. - Despite the less optimistic near-term outlook, management anticipates approximately 14% sales growth in the upcoming third-quarter report, indicating that the growth story is ongoing [9].
Why I'm Not Selling MercadoLibre After a 100% Gain
The Motley Fool· 2025-05-23 21:15
Core Viewpoint - MercadoLibre is positioned as a strong long-term investment in the Latin American e-commerce and fintech sectors, with significant growth potential and favorable market conditions. Group 1: Growth Potential - MercadoLibre operates in 19 Latin American countries, primarily serving customers in Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico, and has room for further expansion [4] - The company has established a logistics network that provides a competitive advantage over rivals like Amazon, allowing it to capture market share early [5] - From 2021 to 2024, MercadoLibre's revenue is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 43%, with over 100 million annual unique active buyers and 60 million fintech monthly active users by the end of 2024 [6] - The Latin American e-commerce market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 16.7% from 2024 to 2030, while the fintech market is projected to expand at a CAGR of 15.9% from 2025 to 2033 [7][8] Group 2: Profitability and Economies of Scale - After a period of unprofitability from 2018 to 2020 due to heavy investments, MercadoLibre returned to profitability in 2021, with net income growing at a CAGR of 185% over the next three years [9][10] - Analysts expect MercadoLibre's earnings per share (EPS) to grow at a CAGR of 34% from 2024 to 2027, driven by higher-margin products and services [10] Group 3: Valuation and Market Position - MercadoLibre's stock trades at approximately $2,579 per share, with a valuation of 52 times this year's earnings and 4.8 times this year's sales, which is reasonable compared to slower-growing competitors like Amazon [12] - With a market capitalization of $131 billion, MercadoLibre remains smaller than e-commerce giants like Amazon and Alibaba, suggesting potential for upside growth [13] - Despite market volatility and macroeconomic concerns, MercadoLibre is considered one of the best growth stocks for long-term investment in the booming e-commerce and fintech markets in Latin America [14]