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FICC日报:MSC下半月价格沿用,运价顶部大概率已现-20250704
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-04 07:35
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rate has likely reached its peak as Maersk and MSC have kept their freight rates unchanged in the second half of July. The EC2510 contract can be sold for hedging at high prices during the freight rate decline [4][5]. - The supply of the US - bound routes has rapidly recovered, and the freight rates from Shanghai to the East and West coasts of the US have dropped from their highs. The freight rates on the Shanghai - Europe route are still uncertain as to when they will peak, and the settlement price of the EC2508 contract is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on August 11th, 18th, and 25th [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Futures Prices - As of July 4, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European route futures contracts was 83,240 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 39,157 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1338.70, 1172.90, 1319.90, 1896.90, 1363.90, and 1538.70 respectively [6]. II. Spot Prices - Online quotes for different shipping companies on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route vary. For example, Maersk's price for the 29th week from Shanghai to Rotterdam is 1785/2990. The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe) price announced on June 27th was 2030.00 US dollars/TEU, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on July 1st was 2123.24 points [1][6]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of now, 135 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.069 million TEU. The weekly average capacity on the Shanghai - European base port route in July was 261,900 TEU, and in August it was 269,900 TEU. There were 8 blank sailings in July and 2 in August [3][7]. IV. Supply Chain - Geopolitical events in Israel may affect the shipping market. The supply and demand of the US - bound routes have both increased, and the capacity has been rapidly restored. The congestion situation of container ships globally and the passage of ships through major canals such as the Suez, Panama, and around the Cape of Good Hope are also factors affecting the supply chain [2]. V. Demand and European Economy - The demand on the China - US route has increased rapidly after the reduction of Sino - US tariffs. The industrial production index, import and export data, consumer confidence index, and retail sales data of the EU 27 countries are important factors affecting the demand for shipping [2].