As a contrarian value investor, when looking for top investment ideas to overweight in my portfolio, I select companies that have strong fundamentals yet are also priced at significant discounts due to getting hit with a barrage of negative headlines about their futures. I then study these companies and their industries deeply in order to find opportunities where it appears that the consensus outlook for the company and its industry is not consistent with what seems to be the most likely outcome for them. T ...

Core Thesis - General Mills, Inc. (GIS) is viewed as a compelling contrarian value opportunity in the consumer staples sector, trading approximately 46% below its historical peak while maintaining stable profitability and strong cash generation [2][3] Company Overview - GIS operates across five segments: North America Retail, Convenience Stores & Foodservice, Europe & Australia, Asia & Latin America, and Pet, with the Blue Buffalo acquisition enhancing its high-growth pet food segment [2][3] Brand and Market Position - The company benefits from strong brand equity, scale advantages, and category leadership in cereals, refrigerated dough, and super-premium ice cream, alongside geographic diversification [3] Growth Catalysts - The investment case is supported by multiple growth catalysts, including mid-to-high single-digit organic growth in the pet food segment, international expansion, health and wellness repositioning, and e-commerce acceleration [3] Financial Performance - Free cash flow is robust at approximately $2.1 billion, supporting a dividend yield of over 4% and providing flexibility for deleveraging and potential share repurchases [4] - Operating margins have expanded to 21.9% despite declining revenues, demonstrating financial discipline through controlled capital expenditures and debt reduction [4] Valuation and Returns - GIS is trading at an attractive valuation of 10–12 times earnings with high-single-digit free cash flow yields, offering downside protection and potential for multiple expansion [5] - Base-case expectations indicate total returns of 25–35% over 2–3 years, driven by margin improvement, revenue stabilization, deleveraging, and dividend support, while a bull scenario could yield 40–50% upside [5] Risk Factors - Risks include persistent category decline, private label competition, and execution challenges, but the combination of income generation, cash flow stability, and contrarian valuation presents an asymmetric risk-reward opportunity for value-oriented investors [6]

Performance Overview - The Third Avenue Value Fund achieved a return of 11.85% for the quarter ending September 30, 2025, outperforming the MSCI World Index (7.36%) and the MSCI World Value Index (5.98%) [2] - Year-to-date, the Fund returned 26.04%, compared to 17.83% for the MSCI World Index and 17.54% for the MSCI World Value Index [2] - Annualized performance for the trailing three-year and five-year periods was 23.24% and 23.66%, respectively [2] Key Contributors to Performance - Capstone Copper was the largest contributor, benefiting from the expansion of its Mantoverde mine and rising copper prices due to tight global supplies and operational disruptions in major mining regions [3] - Lundin Mining also contributed positively, aided by rising copper and gold prices, with its Brazilian copper mine being a significant asset [3] - Warrior Met Coal's Blue Creek project began production ahead of schedule, expected to significantly increase production volumes and reduce costs [4] - Close Brothers benefited from a favorable U.K. Supreme Court ruling, improving the outlook for U.K. lenders involved in motor finance [5] Negative Contributors to Performance - Negative contributions were limited, with easyJet, Ayala Corp., S4 Capital, Interfor, and Boise Cascade noted as underperformers [7] - Boise Cascade and Interfor are exposed to the cyclical downturn in U.S. housing starts and repair activity, presenting potential opportunities for undervalued investments [7] Investment Themes - European companies were significant contributors to performance, with Deutsche Bank and Bank of Ireland showing improved health and operating performance [8][9] - The Fund reduced its position in Deutsche Bank despite its strong performance, indicating a strategic shift in investment focus [9] New Investments - The Fund initiated positions in Boise Cascade, Rogers Corp., and Ayala Corp. during the quarter [32] - Boise Cascade is viewed as inexpensive with potential for recovery in housing-related demand, supported by a strong financial position [34] - Rogers Corporation has valuable intellectual property but has struggled to grow; recent management changes may enhance its competitive position [38] - Ayala Corp. is trading at multi-decade low valuations, with potential catalysts for value creation through asset monetizations and share repurchases [40][41]