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Netflix Is Still King
Seeking Alpha· 2025-07-09 18:00
Industry Overview - The streaming industry is experiencing significant changes with content bundling, pricing increases, and new service announcements [4][5] - Sports content remains fragmented, making it challenging for consumers to find desired content [7][8] - The complexity of the market is increasing as companies change names and introduce more ads [9] Warner Brothers and Comcast - Warner Brothers (WBD) and Comcast (CMCSA) are planning to spin out their linear assets into separate companies, a move driven by the decline in traditional pay-TV markets [10][12] - WBD took a $9.1 billion write-down on its linear TV networks, indicating preparation for asset separation [11] - Comcast's new spin-off, named Versant, is expected to be completed by the end of 2025, focusing on direct-to-consumer services without launching new streaming services [13][14] Disney - Disney reported 126 million Disney+ subscribers and 50.3 million Hulu subscribers, with Hulu's growth stagnating [68][69] - Disney's direct-to-consumer (D2C) business had an operating income of $336 million in Q1, a significant improvement from previous losses [72] - The company is integrating Hulu into Disney+ and launching a new ESPN service, but details on the service remain unclear [78][80] Netflix - Netflix continues to dominate the streaming market, with a reported free cash flow of approximately $11 billion over the last three years [47][48] - The company expects ad revenue to double by 2025 and is expanding its live event strategy [50][51] - Netflix's ad-supported tier has gained traction, with over 50% of new subscribers opting for the ad plan [64][67] Advertising and Metrics - Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) is a critical metric for evaluating streaming services, especially as companies diversify revenue streams [40][41] - Disney's advertising growth was offset by lower CPM rates, indicating challenges in the advertising market [74] - Nielsen's measurement practices are criticized for lacking transparency and accuracy in defining viewership [30][34] Other Companies - Paramount is working on a merger with Skydance, while still facing losses in its streaming service [104][106] - Fox is launching a new D2C streaming service, Fox One, aimed at existing cable subscribers [108] - Peacock continues to incur losses, with an EBITDA loss of $215 million in Q1 [110] Market Trends - The pay-TV market is experiencing significant subscriber losses, with major companies reporting declines [112] - The industry is shifting focus towards profitability and free cash flow, moving away from rapid growth at any cost [91][92]
3 Stocks to Watch From a Challenging Cable Television Industry
ZACKS· 2025-06-13 16:21
Industry Overview - The Zacks Cable Television industry is adapting to challenges from cord-cutting by focusing on bundled offerings and on-demand programming to remain relevant in the evolving media landscape [1] - Companies in this industry are leveraging their broadband infrastructure to meet changing consumer preferences while balancing traditional cable services with new streaming options [1][2] - The industry is capital-intensive and heavily regulated, requiring ongoing investment in technology and infrastructure to maintain competitiveness [2] Trends Impacting the Industry - The shift towards skinny bundles and original content is driving growth, as cable companies adapt their business models to meet consumer preferences for digital and subscription services [3] - High-speed internet demand is a key catalyst for growth, with increasing internet speeds fueling demand for high-quality video and binge viewing [4] - The traditional pay-TV industry is maturing, facing challenges from rising programming costs and competition from streaming services, which complicates customer retention for cable companies [5] Advertising and Market Performance - Softness in advertising demand due to inflation and higher interest rates is impacting business growth, as marketers shift focus to digital platforms for more measurable results [6] - The Zacks Cable Television industry has underperformed compared to the broader Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector and the S&P 500, with an 8.9% return over the past year versus 19.8% for the sector and 11.2% for the S&P 500 [11] Valuation Metrics - The industry is currently trading at an EV/EBITDA of 6.76X, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 17.07X and the sector's 10.84X, indicating potential undervaluation [14] Company Highlights - **Comcast**: Demonstrates financial resilience with 2% EBITDA growth and $5.4 billion in free cash flow, but faces challenges with 199,000 customer losses in broadband [17][18] - **Charter Communications**: Following a $34.5 billion acquisition of Cox Communications, the company shows operational resilience with 4.8% adjusted EBITDA growth and $1.6 billion in free cash flow [21][22] - **Naspers**: Reports a 24% increase in ecommerce revenue to $3.3 billion and a fivefold increase in adjusted EBIT to $169 million, supported by a strong AI-first strategy [25][26]