December 3, 2025 09:00 PM GMT Asia Thematic Alpha | Asia Pacific M Idea Thematic Catalysts for 2026 We highlight our preferred Asia themes heading into 2026, with China's AI Path remaining at the top of our rankings, helped by reasonable valuations, strong growth prospects and low ownership. Catalysts on market/governance reform are also shaping up next year, particularly for Korea and Japan. Key Takeaways Themes and Stock-specific Alpha in Focus in 2026: Compared with top-down market allocations, our 2026 ...

Core Viewpoint - The sales revenue of San Yuan Dairy continues to decline, with a significant drop in its core market of Beijing, indicating challenges in the dairy industry and increased competition [1][4][8]. Sales Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, San Yuan's dairy segment sales amounted to 4.718 billion yuan, down from 5.315 billion yuan in the same period last year, representing a year-on-year decrease of 5.97 million yuan [1]. - Specifically, the sales figures for liquid milk, solid milk, ice cream, and others were 2.917 billion yuan, 703 million yuan, and 1.098 billion yuan, respectively, compared to 3.359 billion yuan, 675 million yuan, and 1.281 billion yuan in the previous year [1]. Market Challenges - The overall dairy market is facing difficulties, with Nielsen IQ reporting a 16.8% year-on-year decline in sales across all channels in September, and a 21.3% drop in offline channels [5]. - In Beijing, the total retail sales for the first three quarters decreased by 5.1%, further complicating the market landscape for dairy products [7]. Competitive Landscape - San Yuan's market share in Beijing is being eroded, with increased competition from brands like Mengniu and Yili, which are gaining consumer trust and market presence [10][12]. - Despite San Yuan's leading position in the low-temperature milk market, its competitive edge is diminishing due to lower profit margins and aggressive pricing strategies from competitors [11][12]. Product Perception and Innovation - Consumer feedback indicates that San Yuan's products are perceived as lacking in flavor, with complaints about the taste of their milk being common [13]. - There is a noted need for product innovation and improvement to meet changing consumer preferences and expectations [13][20]. Organizational Changes - San Yuan is undergoing significant organizational restructuring under the new leadership of Chen Haifeng, who has a background in internet and marketing strategies [17][20]. - The company is implementing a systematic transformation that includes optimizing its organizational structure, reducing staff in various departments, and focusing on digital management [20][21].

Japanese stocks are poised to extend their bull run into next year, a Bloomberg survey shows, as a US trade agreement and a corporate reform drive stoke investor sentiment https://t.co/x7uoxBfzq1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an overweight stance on Japanese equities, with unchanged end-2025 share price targets of TOPIX at 2,800 and Nikkei 225 at 40,000 [2][7][26]. Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates support for Japanese stocks in the second half of 2025 from corporate reforms, fund flows, and macroeconomic factors such as Fed interest rate cuts and a potential Japan-US tariff agreement [2][14][39]. - Two main themes are identified as structural support for Japanese equities: corporate reform and fund flows [3][14][59]. Summary of Key Themes Corporate Reform - Corporate reforms are accelerating, with share buybacks announced in FY2024 nearly doubling year-on-year, indicating a strong momentum for profitability [4][15][39]. - The total shareholder return ratio for Japanese companies has risen to 60%, with 16% of TOPIX companies exceeding a total return ratio of 100% in FY2024 [41][42]. - Balance sheet normalization could potentially boost corporate value by up to 20%, with expectations for ROE to rise to the mid-9% level by FY2026 [17][42]. Fund Flows - A significant rotation of funds from overseas to Japan is expected, driven by rising interest rates and a shift in investment strategies among public pension institutions and banks [5][60]. - The report highlights a historical outflow of funds from Japan to the US, with expectations for a repatriation of capital back to Japan, providing structural support for Japanese equities [25][60]. - Fund inflows are anticipated to continue as the yen appreciates, leading to a decline in overseas securities investment by individuals [61][62]. Sector Outlook - The report recommends a barbell strategy focusing on domestic demand sectors while seeking upside in semiconductors and machinery, depending on trade agreement outcomes [29][39]. - The performance of domestic demand-driven stocks has outpaced overseas demand-driven sectors during the recovery from the US tariff shock, with software, media, and food sectors leading the market [77].