Market Analysis - Bitcoin (BTC) is mirroring post-2022 peak behavior [1] - Bitcoin price is pinned in an $81K–$89K range [1] Technical Indicators - Bitcoin is sitting below Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis for a month [1] Demand Dynamics - New demand for Bitcoin struggles to materialize [1]

Market Sentiment - Fear and Greed Index hits a record low of 11, indicating extreme fear in the market [1] - The current level is lower than during the FTX collapse, which was at 16 [1] ETF Performance - Bitcoin ETF holders are underwater for the first time, with an average cost basis of $86,400 [1] - BlackRock is down $1.09 billion this week alone [1] Potential Market Mechanics - ETF cost basis break could trigger redemption mechanics [1] - This situation presents the first real test of the permanent bid thesis [1]

Financial Analysis - The document refutes claims of a "Margin Call" related to Saylor's investment [1] - The document clarifies that $74k is the cost basis, not a liquidation price [1] Risk Management - The document dismisses concerns about a potential liquidation event [1]

Market Trends - Ethereum cost basis is coming into focus amid slowing ETF and Treasury investments [1]

Market Trend & Risk - Bitcoin trading below a key 0.95 cost basis level [1] - Raising risk of a move to $105K–$90K unless regained, per Glassnode [1]

Investment & Tax Implications - The document explains how to calculate cost basis for investments [1] - It also covers adjustments for stock splits and dividends [1] - The document provides understanding of tax implications related to cost basis [1] Practical Application - The document uses practical examples to illustrate the concepts [1]