Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term domestic cotton is supported by late pricing of textile enterprises and low inventory, with the 9 - 1 spread strengthening. Some long - positions are shifted, the near - month price declines, and the far - month price has strong support. The low inventory before the new cotton listing will support the cotton price, but the terminal finished - product inventory pressure in the off - season may limit the upside, and there is also an expected high yield in the far - month. Attention should be paid to the import quota policy and the subsequent cotton destocking, as well as the change of Sino - US tariffs in August [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range of cotton is predicted to be 13,600 - 14,400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0638 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0713 [2]. - **Risk Management Strategies** - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high inventory worried about price drops, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at 14,200 - 14,400 with a 50% hedging ratio, and sell call options (CF509C14400) at 180 - 220 with a 75% hedging ratio [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at 13,600 - 13,700 with a 50% hedging ratio, and sell put options (CF509P13600) at 100 - 150 with a 75% hedging ratio [2]. Core Contradictions - **Positive Factors**: High tariffs have led to a significant decline in cotton imports this year, and the de - stocking of Xinjiang cotton is fast. As of July 15, the national cotton industrial and commercial inventory is 342.45 million tons, with an expected tight - balance at the end of the year. Also, late pricing of textile factories supports the cotton price [3][4]. - **Negative Factors**: Downstream gauze factories continue to reduce production, yarn prices rise with cotton prices, fabric factories replenish inventory slightly but坯布 inventory accumulates, and the terminal sales are sluggish. The new cotton in Xinjiang is in the boll - setting stage with good growth, leading to an optimistic production expectation for the new year [5]. Futures and Price Indexes - **Futures Prices**: Cotton 01 closed at 14,115 with a 0.36% increase; Cotton 05 at 14,040 with a 0.36% increase; Cotton 09 at 14,170 with a 0.07% increase; Yarn 01 at 20,280 with a 0.07% increase; Yarn 09 at 20,370 with a 0.05% increase. Yarn 05 closed at 20,250 with a - 100% change [5][6]. - **Price Spreads**: Cotton basis is 1379 with a - 24 change; Cotton 01 - 05 spread is 75 with no change; Cotton 05 - 09 spread is - 130 with a 40 change; Cotton 09 - 01 spread is 55 with a - 40 change; Cotton - yarn spread is 6190 with no change; Domestic - foreign cotton spread is 1835 with a 20 change; Domestic - foreign yarn spread is - 479 with no change [7]. - **Price Indexes**: CCI 3128B is 15,549 with a - 0.09% change; CCI 2227B is 13,659 with a - 0.04% change; CCI 2129B is 15,862 with a - 0.11% change; FCI Index S is 13,994 with a 0.52% change; FCI Index M is 13,803 with a 0.55% change; FCI Index L is 13,519 with a 0.39% change [8].