Core Insights - The global trade environment has become increasingly complex, impacting procurement strategies for apparel and textile firms due to ongoing policy uncertainties [1][2] - Tariffs and trade deals significantly influence sourcing decisions and the overall supply chain, affecting raw material availability and consumer spending trends [2] Trade Environment - The trade situation has a direct effect on the entire supply chain, including raw materials, with duties and trade agreements shaping sourcing location choices [2] - A new rule announced in April provides a potential relief from tariff costs, allowing U.S. content to be exempt from duties if at least 20 percent of a product's value is derived from U.S.-produced components [3] Webinar Insights - A webinar is scheduled to discuss the current trade situation and its implications for the industry, particularly focusing on cotton [4] - Key topics will include the latest tariff developments, their impact on fiber and downstream markets, and the implications of ongoing trade deals for cotton production and shipment trends [5] - The session will also cover how importers are leveraging the U.S. content exemption and the factors influencing global cotton pricing, along with a macroeconomic outlook affecting consumer markets [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term domestic cotton is supported by late pricing of textile enterprises and low inventory, with the 9 - 1 spread strengthening. Some long - positions are shifted, the near - month price declines, and the far - month price has strong support. The low inventory before the new cotton listing will support the cotton price, but the terminal finished - product inventory pressure in the off - season may limit the upside, and there is also an expected high yield in the far - month. Attention should be paid to the import quota policy and the subsequent cotton destocking, as well as the change of Sino - US tariffs in August [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range of cotton is predicted to be 13,600 - 14,400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0638 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0713 [2]. - **Risk Management Strategies** - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high inventory worried about price drops, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at 14,200 - 14,400 with a 50% hedging ratio, and sell call options (CF509C14400) at 180 - 220 with a 75% hedging ratio [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at 13,600 - 13,700 with a 50% hedging ratio, and sell put options (CF509P13600) at 100 - 150 with a 75% hedging ratio [2]. Core Contradictions - **Positive Factors**: High tariffs have led to a significant decline in cotton imports this year, and the de - stocking of Xinjiang cotton is fast. As of July 15, the national cotton industrial and commercial inventory is 342.45 million tons, with an expected tight - balance at the end of the year. Also, late pricing of textile factories supports the cotton price [3][4]. - **Negative Factors**: Downstream gauze factories continue to reduce production, yarn prices rise with cotton prices, fabric factories replenish inventory slightly but坯布 inventory accumulates, and the terminal sales are sluggish. The new cotton in Xinjiang is in the boll - setting stage with good growth, leading to an optimistic production expectation for the new year [5]. Futures and Price Indexes - **Futures Prices**: Cotton 01 closed at 14,115 with a 0.36% increase; Cotton 05 at 14,040 with a 0.36% increase; Cotton 09 at 14,170 with a 0.07% increase; Yarn 01 at 20,280 with a 0.07% increase; Yarn 09 at 20,370 with a 0.05% increase. Yarn 05 closed at 20,250 with a - 100% change [5][6]. - **Price Spreads**: Cotton basis is 1379 with a - 24 change; Cotton 01 - 05 spread is 75 with no change; Cotton 05 - 09 spread is - 130 with a 40 change; Cotton 09 - 01 spread is 55 with a - 40 change; Cotton - yarn spread is 6190 with no change; Domestic - foreign cotton spread is 1835 with a 20 change; Domestic - foreign yarn spread is - 479 with no change [7]. - **Price Indexes**: CCI 3128B is 15,549 with a - 0.09% change; CCI 2227B is 13,659 with a - 0.04% change; CCI 2129B is 15,862 with a - 0.11% change; FCI Index S is 13,994 with a 0.52% change; FCI Index M is 13,803 with a 0.55% change; FCI Index L is 13,519 with a 0.39% change [8].

Core Viewpoint - The easing of China-US trade tensions has led to a recovery in the commodity market, particularly in cotton futures, which have shown strong upward momentum [2][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Cotton futures prices have surged, with the main contract CF2509 rising by 290 yuan/ton, a 2.24% increase, breaking through the resistance level around 13,080 yuan [4]. - The optimism in the market is attributed to the recent high-level trade talks between China and the US, which exceeded market expectations and are expected to benefit China's textile and apparel exports [3][4]. Group 2: Trade Agreements - The joint statement from the China-US Geneva trade talks on May 12 indicates a temporary suspension of 24% tariffs on certain Chinese goods for 90 days, while retaining a 10% tariff [3]. - China will reciprocate by suspending similar tariffs on US goods, which is expected to boost market sentiment and cotton prices [3]. Group 3: Cotton Production and Export Data - The US cotton export data shows a significant decline in weekly contracts, down 39% from the previous week and 74% year-on-year, indicating a potential impact from high tariffs [5]. - In contrast, Brazil's cotton production is expected to increase, with a projected planting area of 2.079 million hectares, a 6.9% rise from the previous year [7]. Group 4: Domestic Demand and Supply - Domestic retail sales for clothing and textiles showed a year-on-year increase of 3.6% in March, indicating a stable demand in the domestic market [8]. - However, the textile industry faces challenges with export volumes increasing but prices declining, leading to pressure on downstream profits [8][9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The planting area for cotton in China is expected to increase slightly, supported by price subsidy policies, while the US may see a decrease in cotton planting area by 12% [7][10]. - The market is advised to closely monitor the impact of weather conditions and trade policy developments on cotton prices in the coming months [10].