China’s credit expansion picked up modestly in November from a year ago but loan growth disappointed https://t.co/1fsRVw9gyS ...

Credit Expansion - China's credit expansion slowed more than expected in October compared to the previous year [1] - The slowdown was due to weaker government bond sales [1] - Sluggish borrowing demand across the economy also contributed to the slowdown [1]

Monetary Policy & Bitcoin's Role - Central banks are expected to continue inflating the monetary base and expanding credit indefinitely, favoring leveraging the system over deleveraging [1] - Bitcoin is designed to act as a check against this inflationary monetary policy [1] - Bitcoin's market capitalization is currently at $25 trillion [1] Market Analysis - Goldman Sachs suggests that helicopter money is back and flowing directly into assets, with Bitcoin acting as a "pressure valve" [1]

Core Argument - If an asset possesses immutable, absolute scarcity due to its monetary policy, its primary function is to serve as a store of value [1] - Perpetual credit expansion and the resulting price inflation represent the central crisis of the 21st century [1] - Bitcoin is positioned as a hedge against this crisis [1]

Credit Expansion - China's credit expansion rebounded less than expected in July from a year ago [1]

Credit Expansion - China's credit expansion accelerated more than expected in June [1] - Loan extension experienced a seasonal boost [1] - Government bond issuance was heavy [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Chinese economy** and its monetary data, particularly the impact of fiscal policy on new credit and Total Social Financing (TSF) [1][3][18]. Core Insights and Arguments - **New Credit Missed Expectations**: In April, new RMB loans were only **RMB280 billion**, significantly lower than market expectations of **RMB800 billion** and prior month's **RMB3,640 billion**, marking the second lowest monthly reading since 2010 [3][8]. - **Total Social Financing (TSF)**: New TSF was reported at **RMB1,158 billion**, which was stronger than expected but still below market forecasts [3][5]. - **Fiscal Policy Dominance**: Fiscal policy has become the primary driver of credit expansion in China, with government bond financing being the main contributor to the increase in new TSF [1][3][5]. - **Government Bond Issuance**: In April, government bond issuance reached **RMB976 billion**, offsetting weaknesses in corporate borrowing. Over the past 12 months, government bonds contributed **RMB6.3 trillion** to new TSF [5][10]. - **Credit Impulse**: The credit impulse turned positive in April after being negative for 14 months, primarily driven by government bond issuance [5][14]. Household and Corporate Borrowing Trends - **Household Deleveraging**: Households are in a deleveraging mode, with both short-term and long-term loans contracting by **RMB402 billion** and **RMB123 billion**, respectively. The share of time deposits reached an all-time high of **74.2%** in April [5][17]. - **Corporate Borrowing Weakness**: Corporate borrowing was soft, with a significant impact from debt swaps that replaced corporate loans with government bonds. Corporate demand deposits contracted by **3.8% YoY** [5][19]. Future Outlook - **Fiscal Quota**: The government has approximately **RMB9 trillion** in bond quota remaining for May to December, but the fiscal boost to new credit may be nearing its peak [12][18]. - **Non-Government Credit Recovery**: The potential recovery of non-government credit depends on trade negotiations and domestic policy actions. The Phase 1.5 deal between the US and China may reduce tariff uncertainties, but overall corporate risk appetite remains cautious [19]. Additional Important Points - **M1 Growth**: M1 growth was lifted by statistical revisions, but corporate risk appetite appears weak, indicating a cautious economic environment [1][4]. - **Consumer Confidence and Corporate Profitability**: Future policy focus may shift back to enhancing consumer confidence and corporate profitability as the urgency for domestic policies has reduced [19]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the Chinese economy, the impact of fiscal policy, and the outlook for credit and borrowing trends.