Supply and Demand - Indian refiners plan to continue purchasing Russian crude oil [1] - Domestic fuel demand in India is increasing following the monsoon season [1] Geopolitics and Trade - India and the United States are resuming trade negotiations [1] - Both India and the United States are pushing for a trade deal [1]

Geopolitical Risk - Ukraine attacked the Saratov crude-oil refinery in Russia's Volga region [1] - Western nations seek to push Putin to the negotiating table [1] Energy Sector Impact - The attack targeted a crude-oil refinery [1]

Major California Oil Pipeline May Shut, Force Some Refiners to Import More Crude https://t.co/bUAON0iSD5 ...

Russia’s crude shipments climbed to a three-month high, driven by bigger volumes from Novorossiysk, with intensifying drone attacks causing widespread disruption to refining https://t.co/1zxRbouqeI ...

Market Trends & Analysis - Yields are rangebound, indicating a neutral stance from an intermediate and long-term perspective [2] - The 10-year Treasury yield has support around 42% and resistance around 44% [3] - A breakout from the yield range would suggest higher yields, while a breakdown could lead to secondary support around 40% [4] - Small caps, represented by the Russell 2000, show strong upside momentum in both the intermediate and short term [6] - The Russell 2000 exhibits a cup and handle formation, suggesting a potential lift to new highs [6] - Consolidation is expected for small caps, aligning with seasonal influences and overbought conditions [7] - Large cap indices are losing upside momentum, potentially impacting the Russell 2000 [8] - The VIX is above its 50-day moving average, indicating expanding volatility inversely correlated to the S&P 500 [9] Crude Oil Analysis - Crude oil prices are still in a secular downtrend, requiring a substantial upside move to reverse [9] - There are indications on the monthly chart of WTI suggesting a major low in March/April, based on long-term oversold readings [10] Energy Sector - The energy sector shows signs of life, with some MLPs lifting out of prolonged consolidation phases [11] - Phillips 66 (PSX) shows a potential inverse head and shoulders formation, indicating constructive technical action despite long-term downside momentum [11]

Crude Oil Market Dynamics - Indian refiners are increasing purchases of US crude oil [1] - This increase is a response to Washington's crackdown on India for buying Russian oil [1]

Supply Chain Disruption - Russian crude oil shipments to Hungary may resume after almost a week of halt [1] - The halt was due to Ukraine's attack on Druzhba pipeline network [1]

Trade & Tariffs Impact - US tariffs on Indian goods appear to be impacting Russian crude oil flows to India [1] - Russian crude oil flows to India have decreased by almost 20% since June [1]

Vitol is set to load the first cargo of Syrian crude oil since the lifting of western sanctions on Damascus as the country’s energy industry attempts to recover https://t.co/gKuxCY1512 ...

Refiners in India, among the largest buyers of Russian crude, are planning to trim their purchases in the coming weeks, a modest concession to Washington’s hawks less than a day ahead of a hike in US tariffs https://t.co/dRnyIvxUvY ...