Market Cycle Analysis - DeFi Report 认为加密货币市场目前充满不确定性，可能面临牛市恢复或进入熊市的转折点 [1] - DeFi Report 此前过长时间保持风险偏好，近期已开始降低风险敞口，并评估了周期结束和潜在融涨的风险 [1] - DeFi Report 在 10 月 10 日的闪崩前已转为风险规避模式，原因是观察到市场杠杆过高但基本面疲软 [1][3] - DeFi Report 认为当前扩张阶段已持续 1044 天（截至 9 月底），与之前周期长度相似，暗示周期已进入后期 [2] - DeFi Report 认为即使在牛市情景下，ETH 的交易价格也可能达到 8500 美元，但在 10 月初仍将融涨视为基本情况 [2] Investment Strategy & Risk Management - DeFi Report 的投资策略是选择少量高质量资产，基于数据基本面（尤其是链上数据）进行长期买入并持有，同时根据市场周期调整风险 [1] - DeFi Report 的目标是在周期结束时持有更多现金，以便在熊市中进行部署，并强调在市场风险规避时进行投资 [1] - DeFi Report 已将现金头寸增加到 50%-60%，原因是比特币交易量低迷，ETF 流量放缓 [3] - DeFi Report 目前持有 70% 的现金头寸，并巩固了其最高信念的投资 [3] - DeFi Report 认为在周期后期，如果持有时间过长，可能会错过历史高点，因此需要根据信念采取行动 [3] On-Chain Data & Market Indicators - ETH 期货的估计杠杆率接近 1，远高于历史水平，表明市场存在过度杠杆 [3][4] - DeFi Report 认为大量稳定币购买活动增强了交易者进行杠杆操作的信心，但同时也导致市场结构变得脆弱 [4] - DeFi Report 认为长期比特币持有者已实现 9000 亿美元的利润，高于上个周期的 5000 亿美元，表明卖方压力较大 [5] - DeFi Report 认为 ETH 的已实现利润为 2600 亿美元，低于上个周期的 2200 亿美元，表明 ETH 的周期相对比特币较为平淡 [5] - DeFi Report 认为前七大加密资产的资本基础为 173 万亿美元，市场估值为 31 万亿美元，杠杆和估值溢价可能在熊市中消失 [6] Macroeconomic Factors & Liquidity - DeFi Report 认为全球流动性扩张可能持续到 2026 年上半年，但加密货币市场结构和基本面仍然重要 [7][13][14] - DeFi Report 认为银行同业拆借利率超过联邦基金利率可能导致银行体系流动性紧张，增加市场波动性 [7][18][19] - DeFi Report 认为财政政策（如关税）可能通过将资本从私营部门转移到公共部门来减少流动性 [7][39][40] - DeFi Report 认为 AI 泡沫破裂可能对市场产生重大影响，类似于 2001 年的科技泡沫 [7][34]

It's Q4 of the fourth year in crypto's 4-year cycle, and it's crypto's fourth cycle since Bitcoin launched in 2009. And this means it's going to be up only until the end of the year. Right. Right. Right.Well, not necessarily. Even though the end of the year has historically been bullish for the crypto market, it's not going to be plain sailing. In fact, history suggests that volatility is likely to increase as we approach crypto's cycle top.And that's why today we're going to tell you everything you need to ...

"Long Live the King!" to be published later this week is a chart study of why the 4yr $BTC and #Crypto cycle doesn't apply this time. It was the most common question asked of me during @token2049 , i thot it best to expand on my reasoning via an essay. ...

RT Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio)THE 3RD ALTSEASON HAS JUST STARTED AND HISTORY PROVES IT 🚀First, there are three phases of every crypto cycle:- Pre-ALT Season- 60% Correction-Post-ALT Season (runs ~1 year, last 3 months give a sharp “banana-shaped” rally)⏰Cycle 1 ALTSEASON (Jan 2017 – Jan 2018): 350X:Ran for 1 year. Many remember Nov 2017, Dec 2017, and Jan 2018 as the “banana jump” months with explosive gains.⏰Cycle 2 ALTSEASON (Apr 2020 – Apr 2021):100X:Started 9 months earlier compared to Cycle 1.Most alts ...

Core Viewpoint - Coinbase Global Inc reported disappointing second-quarter earnings, leading to a decline in its stock price amid a busy earnings season [1] Group 1: Earnings Performance - Coinbase's revenues contracted 26% sequentially to $1.497 billion, while adjusted EBITDA declined by 45% to $512 million [2] - The company's earnings per share, excluding one-time items, were $1.45, missing the consensus estimate of $1.52 [4] - Total revenues of $1.50 billion missed consensus by 6%, although transaction revenues were slightly higher than estimates [11] Group 2: Market Position and Volumes - Industry trading volumes declined 26% sequentially, while Coinbase's volumes were down 40%, indicating a loss of market share [3] - The company highlighted a favorable macro backdrop for crypto markets, with July trading revenue of $360 million suggesting a run rate higher than expectations for the third quarter [5][12] Group 3: Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - JPMorgan maintained a Neutral rating and reduced the price target from $404 to $342 [2] - Goldman Sachs reaffirmed a Neutral rating but raised the price target from $305 to $348 [4] - Needham reiterated a Buy rating and raised the price target from $270 to $400, citing product expansion and opportunities within USDC [6] - Canaccord Genuity maintained a Buy rating with a price target of $400 [8] - Rosenblatt Securities reiterated a Buy rating and set a price target of $470 [11] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts expressed concerns about the growth in general and administrative expenses and technology development costs, but noted a strong recovery in crypto volumes in July [7] - The company is seen as a preferred partner for traditional finance players looking to enter the crypto space, supported by an improving regulatory landscape [9][10]