Bitcoin prices fell below $70,000 a coin on Thursday as a painful crypto rout deepened, sending the price of the pioneering digital asset to its lowest level in 15 months. ...

Core Insights - Coinbase indicates that the crypto market is preparing for a reset after experiencing two months of significant bearish pressure [1][4] - Institutional speculation has decreased from 10% in November to approximately 4% currently, suggesting a stabilization in the market [1][6] - The systemic leverage ratio has dropped from around 10% in the summer to about 4%-5% today, which Coinbase considers a stable and sustainable level [2][5] Market Dynamics - The decline in the systemic leverage ratio is crucial as institutions are major players in structured derivatives volume, including OTC desks, ETFs, swaps, and prime brokerage [6] - The recent sell-offs, driven by cascading liquidations, are beginning to fade, indicating a potential recovery in the market [3][10] - Coinbase attributes the turbulence in November to a market purging excess leverage rather than signs of collapse [5] December Outlook - Historically, December has been a bullish month, with an average return of 25% during bull markets, suggesting a potential for a rally following the recent downturn [4][7] - Despite the strong historical performance, 2025 has shown unusual patterns, with October and November being particularly weak [7] - The contraction in BTC/ETH/SOL perpetual futures open interest by 16% month-over-month and significant outflows from U.S. spot ETFs indicate a cautious approach from institutional investors [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has fallen below the critical $112,000 level due to macroeconomic concerns and a significant $19 billion in futures liquidation across exchanges [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The crypto market is entering a "reset phase," characterized by a large-scale leverage flush, slowing ETF inflows, and increased volatility, described as "an Early Black Friday" [2]. - Bitcoin is currently trading around $111,000, down approximately 9% over the past week, with a decline below the $117,000–$114,000 cost-basis zone since October 10 [2]. - On-chain data indicates ongoing selling from long-term holders since July and a decrease in institutional interest, with Bitcoin ETFs experiencing a 2,300 BTC outflow this week [3]. Group 2: Futures Market Dynamics - The futures market has seen a significant cleanup, with the Estimated Leverage Ratio dropping to multi-month lows and funding rates falling to levels not seen since the 2022 FTX collapse, indicating intense liquidation and peak market fear [3]. - The options market is showing early signs of stabilization, with open interest rebounding despite a surge in volatility to 76% [4]. Group 3: Analyst Perspectives - Some analysts believe Bitcoin could reach new highs by 2026, suggesting that current dips present buying opportunities, provided the $102,000 level holds [5]. - Conversely, crypto analyst Jason Pizzino warns that a drop below $108,000 could jeopardize the bull market, although other assets like gold and stocks remain near record highs, indicating ongoing support for long-term growth [5].